Quantitative research on arms transfers has not adequately accounted for broader theories of international relations. We review the specialized literature on arms transfers and examine how arms transfers fit with the broad international relations theories. We derive and test seven hypotheses based on realist, liberal and constructivist theories using a dataset of all non-US/Russian aircraft transfers between 1990 and 2010. We find limited support for realist hypotheses. We find little support for hypotheses derived from the Democratic Peace literature, but some support for liberal trade arguments. We also find some support for constructivist arguments based on shared identity and prestige measures.

关于武器转让的定量研究不足以解释更广泛的国际关系理论。我们回顾了有关武器转让的专门文献，并研究了武器转让如何适合广泛的国际关系理论。我们使用1990年至2010年之间所有非美国/俄罗斯飞机运输的数据集，基于现实主义，自由主义和建构主义理论推导并检验了七个假设。我们发现对现实主义假设的支持有限。对于民主和平文献中的假设，我们几乎没有支持，但对自由贸易的论点却有些支持。我们还发现基于共同的身份和声望测度对建构主义论点的支持。