Shifts in marine species distributions are occurring rapidly in response to climate change, yet predicted rates of change are partly dependent on the data used to estimate species distributions. While pelagic fishes are known to respond to dynamic oceanographic variables, static topographic features can also regulate their distributions, yet the effect of topography on rates of range shifts remains poorly understood. For a suite of five pelagic fishes from an ocean warming hotspot, we developed generalized additive mixed models that did and did not incorporate preferences for seascape topographic heterogeneity when estimating species distributions. Monthly spatial predictions over two decades revealed that poleward extensions in species' core environmental habitats were significantly reduced by 5.3–60.4% (7.1–131.4 km per decade) when preferences for seascape topography were incorporated. These findings suggest that ignoring species associations with static environmental features can substantially affect predicted rates of climate-driven redistributions in fishes.

中文翻译：

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海景地形减缓了气候变化下鱼类的预计范围变化

海洋物种分布的变化是响应气候变化而迅速发生的，但是预测的变化率部分取决于用于估计物种分布的数据。尽管已知远洋鱼类对动态海洋学变量有反应，但静态地形特征也可以调节其分布，但是，对地形对范围变化率的影响的了解仍然很少。对于来自海洋变暖热点的五种浮游鱼类，我们开发了广义加性混合模型，该模型在估计物种分布时纳入了和不考虑海景地形异质性的偏好。过去二十年的月度空间预测显示，物种核心环境栖息地的极地扩展显着减少了5.3–60.4％（7.1–131）。每十年10公里（4公里）。这些发现表明，忽略具有静态环境特征的物种关联会大大影响鱼类中由气候驱动的再分配的预期速率。