This study investigates how demand uncertainty reduction (DUR) affects the decisional dynamics within a supply chain, which comprises a supplier and a capital-constrained retailer, who chooses between bank credit and trade credit financing. A comprehensive scenario analysis suggests the retailer should accept trade credit when DUR is high, trade credit risk premium is moderate, and wholesale price is exogenous and low. However, the retailer should adopt trade credit only when both DUR and production cost are not high, and wholesale price is set endogenously. We further relax the assumption on the bank’s risk attitude and find most results still hold.

这项研究调查了减少需求不确定性（DUR）如何影响供应链中的决策动态，供应链包括供应商和受资本约束的零售商，他们在银行信贷和贸易信贷融资之间进行选择。全面的情景分析表明，零售商在DUR高，贸易信用风险溢价适中，批发价外生且较低时应接受贸易信用。但是，仅当DUR和生产成本都不高且批发价格是内生地设定时，零售商才应采用贸易信贷。我们进一步放宽了对银行风险态度的假设，发现大多数结果仍然成立。