In this study, a comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using both time-independent and time-dependent approaches is carried out for the North Tehran fault (NTF) scenario. We applied a novel backbone approach to consider the epistemic uncertainty associated with the ground motion estimates. For this purpose, a backbone ground motion model (GMM) is selected using the data-driven deviance information criterion (DIC) method, and the logic tree branches are populated with the backbone GMMs that are added/subtracted from a scale factor. The results show that the estimated ground motions follow the spatial pattern of the NTF and decrease in the far-field, but this spatial pattern is also influenced by the amplification from site effects, in the southern alluvium part where the sites are classified as the category D of NEHRP. Furthermore, the effect of the multi-segment rupture is investigated using a cascading model. The results show that the ground motion values are increased by 20–40% and 10–20% for the 10%-in-50 years and 2%-in-50 years, respectively, particularly at near-fault distances. The results of this study are generally compatible with the previous seismic hazard studies for the Tehran region. Therefore, the novel backbone approach used in this study provides a more reliable seismic hazard estimates for the Tehran metropolis.

在这项研究中，针对北德黑兰断层（NTF）情景，使用了与时间无关和与时间有关的方法，进行了全面的概率地震危险性分析（PSHA）。我们应用了一种新颖的主干方法来考虑与地面运动估计有关的认知不确定性。为此，使用数据驱动偏差信息标准（DIC）方法选择骨干地面运动模型（GMM），并使用从比例因子中添加/减去的骨干GMM填充逻辑树分支。结果表明，估计的地震动遵循NTF的空间模式并在远场减小，但这种空间模式还受场地效应放大的影响，在南部冲积层中，场地被分类为类别NEHRP的D。此外，使用级联模型研究了多节破裂的影响。结果表明，在50年的10％和50年的2％中，地面运动值分别增加了20-40％和10-20％，特别是在接近断层距离的情况下。这项研究的结果通常与德黑兰地区以前的地震危险性研究相吻合。因此，本研究中使用的新型骨干方法为德黑兰都市提供了更可靠的地震危险估计。这项研究的结果通常与德黑兰地区以前的地震危险性研究相吻合。因此，本研究中使用的新型骨干方法为德黑兰都市提供了更可靠的地震危险估计。这项研究的结果通常与德黑兰地区以前的地震危险性研究相吻合。因此，本研究中使用的新型骨干方法为德黑兰都市提供了更可靠的地震危险估计。