Bat populations in eastern North America have experienced precipitous declines following the spread of white-nose syndrome (WNS) and other population stressors. It is imperative to understand changes in bat populations as WNS spreads to provide appropriate guidance for species management. We developed generalized linear mixed-models of population trend and habitat associations for five indicator bat species on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Mobile Acoustic Bat Monitoring program routes across 86 sites in the southeastern United States from 2012 to 2017. We estimated substantial declining annual trends in relative abundance of tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus; −15.1% [−20.6 to −9.1% 95% CI]) and little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus; −13.9% [−22.9 to −3.8% 95% CI]). Relative abundance of bat species increased throughout the summer, and associated positively with the amount of woody cover along survey routes in all but P. subflavus. Fewer evening bats (Nycticeius humeralis) and eastern red bats (Lasiurus borealis) were detected along more developed routes. Using these models, we conducted a prospective power analysis to examine sampling effort necessary to detect moderate to catastrophic population changes in bat populations. We estimated that it would require 10–20 years of surveys on 50–100 routes to detect 5% annual declines in all species at 80% power and α = 0.1. Detecting a 2.73% annual decline may require >200 surveys over >20 years; whereas a 1.14% annual decline was nearly impossible to detect via our program. We demonstrate and caution that underpowered monitoring programs may misrepresent the magnitude and/or sign of population trajectories. We recommend project-specific power analysis continue to be emphasized as an important study design component for effective long-term monitoring programs.

随着白鼻综合症（WNS）和其他人口压力因素的扩散，北美东部的蝙蝠种群数量急剧下降。必须了解随着WNS的传播蝙蝠种群的变化，以为物种管理提供适当的指导。在2012年至2017年期间，我们通过美国东南部86个站点的美国鱼类和野生动物服务部移动声蝙蝠监测程序路线，开发了5种指示蝙蝠物种的种群趋势和栖息地关联的广义线性混合模型。三色蝙蝠（Perimyotis subflavus； -15.1％[−20.6至-9.1％95％CI]）和小棕蝙蝠（Myotis lucifugus）的相对丰度; -13.9％[-22.9至-3.8％95％CI]）。在整个夏季，蝙蝠种类的相对丰度增加，并且与黄皮体育中除所有黄皮虾以外沿调查路径的木本掩盖量呈正相关。晚蝙蝠（Nycticeius humeralis）和东部红蝙蝠（Lasiurusborealis）较少）是在较发达的路线上检测到的。使用这些模型，我们进行了前瞻性功效分析，以检验检测蝙蝠种群中度到灾难性种群变化所必需的抽样工作。我们估计，要在80％功率和α= 0.1的情况下检测出所有物种的5％的年下降值，则需要对50-100条路线进行10-20年的调查。要检测到2.73％的年度下降，可能需要在超过20年的时间里进行200多次调查；而通过我们的计划几乎无法检测到1.14％的年度下降。我们证明并警告说，监测程序的功能不足可能会歪曲人口轨迹的大小和/或迹象。我们建议针对特定项目的功耗分析应继续作为有效的长期监控程序的重要研究设计组件而予以强调。