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Modern American Populism: Analyzing the Economics Behind the “Silent Majority,” the Tea Party, and Trumpism
The American Journal of Economics and Sociology ( IF 0.9 ) Pub Date : 2019-05-01 , DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12281
Willis Patenaude

This article researches populism, more specifically, Modern American Populism (MAP), constructed of white, rural, and economically oppressed reactionarianism, which was borne out of the political upheaval of the 1960’s Civil Rights movement. The research looks to explain the causes of populism and what leads voters to support populist movements and populist politicians. The research focuses on economic anxiety as a necessary trigger but also examines the alternative theory of racial resentment. In an effort to answer the question, what causes populist movements and motivations, I apply a research approach that utilizes qualitative and quantitative methods. There is an examination of literature that defines populism, its causes, and a detailed discussion of the case studies involved, including the 1972 election of Richard Nixon; the Tea Party election of 2010; and the 2016 election of Donald Trump. In addition, statistical data analysis was run using American National Election Studies (ANES) surveys associated with each specific case study. These case studies were chosen because they most represent forms of populist movements in modern American history. While ample qualitative evidence suggested support for the hypothesis that economic anxiety is a necessary condition for the populist voting patterns that elected Nixon, the Tea Party and Trump, the statistical data only supported the hypothesis in two cases, 2010 and 2016, with 1972 coming back inconclusive. The data also suggested that both economic anxiety and racial resentment played a role in 2010 and 2016, with neither having a significant effect in 1972. This suggests that further research needs to be conducted into additional populist case studies, as well as an examination into the role economic anxiety and economic crises play on racial resentment and racially motivated voting behavior.

中文翻译:

现代美国民粹主义:“沉默的多数”,茶党和特朗普主义背后的经济学分析

本文研究的是民粹主义,更具体地讲,是由白人,农村和经济上受压迫的反动主义构成的现代美国民粹主义(MAP),其源于1960年代民权运动的政治动荡。该研究旨在解释民粹主义的原因以及导致选民支持民粹主义运动和民粹政治家的原因。该研究关注经济焦虑是必要的触发因素,但同时也考察了种族怨恨的替代理论。为了回答导致民粹主义运动和动机的问题,我采用了一种利用定性和定量方法的研究方法。有一个定义民粹主义,其原因,以及所涉及的案例研究,包括1972年的选举理查德·尼克松的详细讨论文学的检查; 2010年茶党选举;和2016年的选举唐纳德·特朗普的。此外,使用与每个特定案例研究相关的美国国家选举研究(ANES)调查进行统计数据分析。选择这些案例研究是因为它们最能代表现代美国历史上的民粹主义运动形式。尽管有足够的定性证据支持经济焦虑是选举尼克松,茶党和特朗普的民粹主义投票模式的必要条件这一假说的支持,但统计数据仅在两种情况下(2010年和2016年)支持了这一假说,1972年又回来了没有定论。数据还表明,经济焦虑和种族怨恨在2010年和2016年都发挥了作用,但在1972年都没有显着影响。
更新日期:2019-05-01
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