What, if anything, is epistemically wrong with beliefs involving accurate statistical generalizations about demographic groups? This paper argues that there is a perfectly general, underappreciated epistemic flaw which affects both ethically charged and uncharged statistical generalizations. Though common to both, this flaw can also explain why demographic statistical generalizations give rise to the concerns they do. To identify this flaw, we need to distinguish between the accuracy and the projectability of statistical beliefs. Statistical beliefs are accompanied by an implicit representation of the statistic's modal profile. Their modal profile determines the circumstances in which they can legitimately be projected to unobserved instances. Errors in that implicit content can be compatible with the accuracy of the “bare” statistic, whilst systematically leading to downstream errors in reasoning, in a manner which reveals an epistemic flaw with an important aspect of the belief state itself.

中文翻译：

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超越准确性：具有统计概括性的认识论缺陷

涉及对人口群体的准确统计归纳的信念在认识论上有什么错误（如果有的话）？本文认为，存在一个完全普遍的，未被充分认识的认知缺陷，它会影响有道德的统计概括和未经统计的统计概括。尽管这两种缺陷都是共同的，但也可以解释为什么人口统计概述会引起他们的担忧。为了识别此缺陷，我们需要区分统计信念的准确性和可预测性。统计信念伴随着统计模态特征的隐式表示。它们的模式轮廓决定了可以合理地将它们投影到未观察到的实例的情况。该隐含内容中的错误可以与“裸露”统计信息的准确性兼容，