We analyse the impact of the Presidential Amnesty Programme on crude oil production in Nigeria. The President of Nigeria instituted an amnesty programme in June 2009 to end the disruptive protests in the oil‐producing Niger Delta. Between 2006 and 2009, it is estimated that crude oil production losses exceeded 650,000 barrels per day, dramatically reducing government revenue. The amnesty programme provided militants a state pardon, educational training and a monthly stipend in exchange for the surrender of weapons. In this research, we use disaggregate oil‐well‐level data to estimate a difference‐in‐difference model of Nigerian crude oil production. The estimates reveal that the Presidential Amnesty Programme increased the oil output in the Niger Delta by about 40 per cent above the level that would have been achieved in the absence of the policy.

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2009年总统大赦计划与尼日利亚的石油生产：分类计量经济学分析

我们分析了总统大赦计划对尼日利亚原油生产的影响。尼日利亚总统于2009年6月制定了一项大赦计划，以结束产油的尼日尔三角洲的破坏性抗议活动。据估计，在2006年至2009年期间，原油产量每天损失超过650,000桶，大大减少了政府收入。大赦方案为武装分子提供了州赦免，教育培训和每月津贴，以换取交出武器。在这项研究中，我们使用分类的油井水平数据来估计尼日利亚原油产量的差异模型。估计数表明，总统大赦方案使尼日尔三角洲的石油产量比没有该政策的情况下增加了约40％。