Given the upward trend of OPEC energy intensity, policymakers need a good understanding of the underlying factors and the environmental impacts when considering future energy policies. An index decomposition analysis is used to decompose OPEC energy intensity covering 1971–2017. The link between the decomposed energy indices and CO₂ emissions is examined using structural time series and least square dummy variable corrected models. Both models also estimate the underlying carbon emission trend (UCET) which arguably reflects the impact of non‐economic factors. For OPEC as a group, increases in energy intensity are linked to both energy inefficiency and structural shifts towards energy‐intensive activities. About 62 per cent of the increases are attributed to the former, and the remaining 38 per cent is due to the later. The country‐level results also show major contributions from both components to energy intensity. The econometric results show that shifts towards energy‐intensive activities and, notably, deteriorating energy efficiency generally go in tandem with substantial increases in CO₂ emissions. The estimated UCET is upward sloping indicating carbon‐emitting behaviour, taste and lifestyle. Therefore, policies aimed at conserving energy and limiting the concentration of energy‐intensive activities in the oil‐exporting countries should be considered alongside other policies that attempt to influence behaviours and lifestyles.

中文翻译：

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欧佩克能源强度的基本趋势及其对环境的影响

考虑到欧佩克能源强度的上升趋势，决策者在考虑未来的能源政策时需要对潜在因素和环境影响有很好的了解。指数分解分析用于分解1971–2017年间的OPEC能源强度。分解的能量指数与CO ₂之间的联系使用结构时间序列和最小二乘虚拟变量校正模型检查排放。两种模型都估计了潜在的碳排放趋势（UCET），可以说反映了非经济因素的影响。对于整个欧佩克组织而言，能源强度的提高与能源效率低下以及结构向能源密集型活动的转变有关。增长中约有62％归因于前者，其余38％归因于后者。国家一级的结果还显示了这两个组成部分对能源强度的重要贡献。计量经济学结果表明，向能源密集型活动的转变，尤其是能源效率的下降通常与CO _2的大量增加同时发生。排放。估计的UCET向上倾斜，表明碳排放行为，口味和生活方式。因此，应与旨在影响行为和生活方式的其他政策一起考虑旨在节约能源并限制石油出口国能源密集型活动集中的政策。