Two years after withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, U.S. President Donald Trump's “maximum pressure” campaign has failed to change Iran's regional behavior, bring Tehran back to the negotiation table, curb its nuclear and missile programs, and counter Iran's proxy influence in the region. Instead, Iran has adopted a “maximum resistance” strategy to deal with Washington's pressure. According to the Neorealist school of thought in International Relations (IR), rising systemic or structural pressure on a given state is expected to alter its policies or even its regime. The case of Iran appears to challenge this expectation. This article suggests that Iran has adopted an “anti‐containment” strategy to deal with the U.S. pressure. The strategy is based on asymmetric deterrence, the main pillars of which are employing local allied forces and enhancing air and naval deterrence capabilities. Meanwhile, Iran's military–security establishment has gained the upper hand in dealing with the United States, sidelining the diplomatic apparatus. This situation bears the risk of a confrontation between Iran and the United States while leaving no space for meaningful diplomatic engagement.

中文翻译：

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特朗普对伊朗区域政策的“最大压力”和反遏制

退出伊朗核协议两年后，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的“最大压力”运动未能改变伊朗的区域行为，无法将德黑兰带回谈判桌，遏制其核和导弹计划，以及对抗伊朗在该地区的代理影响。相反，伊朗采取了“最大抵抗”战略来应对华盛顿的压力。根据新现实主义国际关系学派（IR）的说法，对一个特定国家施加的越来越大的系统性或结构性压力有望改变其政策，甚至改变其政权。伊朗的情况似乎挑战了这一预期。本文暗示伊朗已采取“反遏制”战略来应对美国的压力。该策略基于不对称威慑，其主要支柱是雇用当地盟军并增强空中和海军的威慑能力。同时，伊朗的军事安全机构在与美国打交道时占据了上风，同时也忽略了外交机构。这种情况冒着伊朗与美国之间对抗的风险，而没有留下进行有意义的外交接触的空间。