Temperature profiles are a fundamental input into mechanistic-empirical pavement analysis and design, and the enhanced integrated climatic model (EICM) is the state-of-the-practice for calculating those profiles. The EICM has also been used in other applications, such as analysis to evaluate the effects of climate change on pavements and to estimate the effects of pavements on urban heat islands. The calculations in the EICM for pavement temperatures can be viewed as having two primary components that together act as a system: the thermal model describing conductance of temperatures throughout the pavement, and the boundary conditions that include the convective terms at the pavement surface, an energy balance model to predict the solar radiation at the surface of the pavement and a specified lower boundary condition (generally constant temperature at defined depth). As is shown in this paper, the current EICM models overpredict temperatures during hot times and in no-wind conditions, while also underpredicting (albeit to a lesser magnitude) during cold conditions. This result implies that the increases in pavement temperatures predicted to occur with climate change are likewise overestimated. Conversely, because the convection coefficient is incorrect, the predicted amount of energy contributing to urban heat islands will also not be correctly predicted using the current EICM models. Although improvements to the solar model are noted, this paper focuses on improvements to the thermal model and convective boundary condition using modern heat transfer principles and data from the Long-Term Pavement Performance database.

温度曲线是机械-经验路面分析和设计的基本输入，而增强的综合气候模型（EICM）是计算这些曲线的最佳实践。EICM也已用于其他应用程序，例如分析以评估气候变化对人行道的影响并估算人行道对城市热岛的影响。EICM中对路面温度的计算可以视为具有两个主要成分，它们共同构成一个系统：描述整个路面温度传导的热模型，以及包括路面对流项的边界条件，一个能量平衡模型，用于预测人行道表面的太阳辐射和指定的下边界条件（在定义深度处通常为恒定温度）。如本文所示，当前的EICM模型会在高温和无风条件下高估温度，而在寒冷条件下也会低估（尽管幅度较小）。该结果表明，预计因气候变化而发生的路面温度升高也被高估了。相反，由于对流系数不正确，因此使用当前的EICM模型也无法正确预测对城市热岛的能源贡献量。尽管注意到改进了太阳能模型，