ABSTRACT

Strategies for agricultural climate change adaptation are needed to ensure that sub-Saharan Africa can continue to feed itself, given its rapidly growing population and the expected impacts of climate change on food production. The poultry sector is an important component of the African food system, but national climate change adaptation plans in many countries fail to take into account the specific contextual challenges faced by poultry producers. We developed a participatory system dynamics modelling tool to involve stakeholders from the poultry sector in Nigeria in analyzing how climate impacts would affect the sector, with the goal of generating insights for state (sub-national) and national scale policy makers. A second goal of the exercise was to facilitate social learning and knowledge sharing on adaptation strategies among the stakeholders. Given the high uncertainty of the conditions surrounding the Nigerian poultry sector, the model's use is primarily as a discussion tool for poultry sector stakeholders, including policy makers, to share concerns and develop adaptation strategies. It served this purpose, as evidenced by the creation of a manual for poultry producers from the exercise. Similar stakeholder engagement efforts can stimulate knowledge sharing around climate change adaptation for problems around which limited data and high uncertainty exist.

Key policy insights

• Participatory system dynamics modelling is shown to be a useful tool for integrating national and community-level priorities for policy and management under climate change in the Nigerian poultry sector.

• Effective climate change adaptation will require building resilience to large-scale external drivers such as global trade dynamics, which are highly influential in the system.

• In order to effectively move from planning to implementation, climate change adaptation processes must facilitate social learning and knowledge sharing around the long-term consequences of policy and management choices.

摘要

考虑到非洲撒哈拉以南非洲人口的快速增长以及气候变化对粮食生产的预期影响，需要采取农业适应气候变化的战略，以确保其继续自给自足。家禽部门是非洲粮食系统的重要组成部分，但是许多国家的国家适应气候变化计划未能考虑到家禽生产者所面临的具体环境挑战。我们开发了一种参与式系统动力学建模工具，让尼日利亚家禽部门的利益相关者参与其中，以分析气候影响将如何影响该部门，以期为州（国家以下）和国家规模的决策者提供见解。该活动的第二个目标是促进利益相关者之间关于适应策略的社会学习和知识共享。鉴于尼日利亚家禽业状况的高度不确定性，该模型的使用主要是作为家禽业利益相关者（包括决策者）讨论问题并制定适应策略的讨论工具。为这一目的而服务的是这一点，这一点可从为家禽生产者编写一份手册来证明。利益相关者的类似努力可以促进围绕气候变化适应的知识共享，以解决存在有限数据和高度不确定性的问题。从演习中为家禽生产者创建手册就证明了这一点。利益相关者的类似努力可以促进围绕气候变化适应的知识共享，以解决存在有限数据和高度不确定性的问题。从演习中为家禽生产者创建手册就证明了这一点。利益相关者的类似努力可以促进围绕气候变化适应的知识共享，以解决存在有限数据和高度不确定性的问题。

重要政策见解

• 参与式系统动力学建模被证明是整合尼日利亚和家禽业气候变化下国家和社区层面的政策和管理重点的有用工具。

• 要有效地适应气候变化，就需要增强对全球外部动力（例如全球贸易动态）的适应能力，这些因素在系统中具有很大的影响力。

• 为了有效地从规划过渡到实施，适应气候变化的过程必须围绕政策和管理选择的长期后果，促进社会学习和知识共享。