Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100474 Domonkos F. Vamossy
Armed with a decade of social media data, I explore the impact of investor emotions on earnings announcements. In particular, I test whether the emotional content of firm-specific messages posted on social media just prior to a firm’s earnings announcement predicts its earnings and announcement returns. I find that investors are typically excited about firms that end up exceeding expectations, yet their enthusiasm results in lower announcement returns. Specifically, a standard deviation increase in excitement is associated with an 7.8 basis points lower announcement return, which translates into an approximately −5.8% annualized loss. My findings confirm that emotions and market dynamics are closely related and highlight the importance of considering investor emotions when assessing a firm’s short-term value.
中文翻译:
投资者情绪和收益公告
借助十年的社交媒体数据,我探讨了投资者情绪对收益公告的影响。尤其要测试的是,在公司发布财报之前,社交媒体上发布的公司特定信息的情感内容是否可以预测其收益和公告收益。我发现,投资者通常会对最终超出预期的公司感到兴奋,但他们的热情导致公告收益较低。具体而言,兴奋度的标准差增加与公告收益降低7.8个基点相关,这意味着每年损失约为-5.8%。我的发现证实了情绪和市场动态密切相关,并突出了评估公司短期价值时考虑投资者情绪的重要性。