In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.

在旅游业受到 COVID-19 大流行以及未来可能受到其他流行病威胁的背景下，做出准确预测的能力对利益相关者和政策制定者至关重要。本文试图预测2021年全球20个目的地旅游需求的复苏情况。提出了一种基于Covid-19风险暴露指数定义的原创情景判断预测，以克服传统预测方法的局限性。提出了三种情景，并使用基线预测、开发的指数和判断方法为每个目的地生成事前预测。然后讨论了这种新预测模型的局限性和潜在发展。