ABSTRACT: Projected climate change is forecasted to have significant effects on biological systems worldwide. Marine turtles in particular may be vulnerable, as the sex of their offspring is determined by their incubating temperature, termed temperature-dependent sex determination. This study aimed to estimate historical, and forecast future, primary sex ratios of hawksbill turtle Eretmochelys imbricata hatchlings at an important nesting ground in northeastern Qatar. Incubation temperatures from the Arabian/Persian Gulf were measured over 2 nesting seasons. Climate data from same period were regressed with nest temperatures to estimate incubation temperatures and hatchling sex ratios for the site from 1993 to 2100. Future hatchling sex ratios were estimated for 2 climate forecasts, one mid-range (SSP245) and one extreme (SSP585). Historical climate data showed female-biased sex ratios of 73.2 ± 12.1% from 1993 to 2017. Female biases from 2018 to 2100 averaged 85.7% ± 6.7% under the mid-range scenario and 87.9% ± 5.4% under the high-range scenario. In addition, predicted female hatchling production was >90% from 2054 and 2052 for SSP245 and SSP585, respectively. These results show that hawksbill primary sex ratios in Qatar are at risk of significant feminization by the year 2100 and that hawksbill turtle incubation temperatures in an extreme, understudied environment are already comparable to those predicted in tropical rookeries during the latter half of the 21^st century. These results can help conservationists predict primary sex ratios for hawksbill turtles in the region in the face of 21^st-century climate change.

中文翻译：

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二十一世纪nest在重要的区域性巢穴聚集中女性化的turtle孵化

摘要：预计气候变化将对全世界的生物系统产生重大影响。特别是海龟可能是脆弱的，因为其后代的性别是由其孵化温度决定的，称为温度依赖性性别决定。本研究旨在评估的历史，并展望未来，初级性别比玳瑁Eretmochelys玳瑁幼鸟在卡塔尔东北部重要的筑巢地。在两个筑巢季节中测量了阿拉伯/波斯湾的孵化温度。将同期的气候数据与巢温度进行回归，以估算该地点在1993年至2100年之间的孵化温度和孵化率。估计未来的孵化率有2种气候预测值，一种是中档（SSP245），一种是极端（SSP585）。 。历史气候数据显示，从1993年到2017年，女性偏向性别比为73.2±12.1％。从2018年到2100年，女性偏见在中档情况下平均为85.7％±6.7％，在中档情况下为87.9％±5.4％。此外，对于SSP245和SSP585，从2054年和2052年开始，预计女性孵化率分别高于90％。^圣世纪。这些结果可以帮助动物保护主义者在21的脸上预测主要性别比为玳瑁，在区域^ST -century气候变化。