To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North‐American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA‐CORDEX) simulations, but with future LUCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related to a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). We examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without two urban and agricultural LUC scenarios that follow SSP3 and SSP5 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by one global climate model, the MPI‐ESM, under the RCP8.5 scenario. We find that LUCs following different societal trends under the SSPs can significantly affect climate projections in different ways. In regions of significant cropland expansion over previously forested area, projected annual mean temperature increases are diminished by around 0.5°C–1.0°C. Across all seasons, where urbanization is high, projected temperature increases are magnified. In particular, summer mean temperature projections are up to 4°C–5°C greater and minimum and maximum temperature projections are increased by 2.5°C–6°C, amounts that are on par with the warming due to GHG‐forced climate change. Warming is also enhanced in the urban surroundings. Future urbanization also has a large influence on precipitation projections during summer, increasing storm intensity, event length, and the overall amount over urbanized areas, and decreasing precipitation in surrounding areas.

中文翻译：

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基于SSP的土地利用变化情景：未来区域气候变化预测中的关键不确定性

为了更好地理解预计的土地利用变化（LUC）在未来的区域气候预测中可能发挥的作用，我们评估了温室气体（GHG）强迫的气候变化和LUC在区域气候模型（RCM）模拟中的综合作用。为此，我们制作了RCM模拟，该模拟是对北美协调区域缩减实验（NA-CORDEX）模拟的补充，但其未来LUC与特定的“共享社会经济路径”（SSP）一致，并且与特定的“代表集中度路径”相关（RCP）。我们使用由一种全球气候模型MPI-ESM强制执行的天气研究和预报（WRF）模型，研究了是否存在遵循SSP3和SSP5的两种城市和农业LUC情景，研究了21世纪末的气候状况。在RCP8.5方案下。我们发现，在SSP下遵循不同社会趋势的LUC可以以不同方式显着影响气候预测。在先前森林地区耕地面积显着扩大的地区，预计的年平均气温升高幅度降低了约0.5°C–1.0°C。在城市化程度很高的所有季节中，预计的温度升高都会放大。尤其是夏季平均温度预测高出4°C–5°C，最低和最高温度预测高出2.5°C–6°C，与温室气体强迫气候变化导致的变暖相当。城市周围的环境也变暖。未来的城市化也将对夏季的降水预测，风暴强度，事件持续时间以及整个城市化地区的总量增加产生重大影响，