The effects of potential reductions of freshwater inflow were evaluated for the lower Peace River and its largest tributary, lower Shell Creek, which flow into the Charlotte Harbor estuary in southwest Florida. Habitat suitability modeling (HSM) and mapping of fish and invertebrate species life stages were used to seasonally predict changes in spatial distributions and population numbers associated with simulated freshwater withdrawals. Seasonal salinity grids and temperature grids derived from values predicted by hydrodynamic modeling (2007–2014) were similar between baseline (i.e., flows not affected by water withdrawals) and minimum flows (flows associated with water withdrawals). Depth grids, bottom type grids, and seasonal dissolved oxygen grids were held constant between the two scenarios. Seasonal habitat suitability models were applied to 28 fish and invertebrate species life stages with affinities for low or moderate salinity. Salinity was the most significant factor in seasonal models for species life stages. The seasonal HSM maps produced showed that spatial distributions were similar between baseline and minimum flows for each species life stage. Most seasonal estimates of population numbers under minimum flows were less than the estimates for the baseline condition, indicating some effect on population numbers associated with flow reductions. Reductions in population numbers under minimum flows ranged from 0.3% to 21.0%, with 3 out of 28 seasonal comparisons indicating losses >15% and 12 comparisons indicating losses between 5% and 15%. Although other factors related to freshwater inflow can also influence species abundance and distribution, these results demonstrate how output from hydrodynamic modeling can be applied to HSM analyses and mapping to estimate spatial changes in habitat areas and population numbers for the life stages of selected fish and invertebrate species in relation to changes in salinity distributions, which can be used to identify areas of an estuary that are particularly susceptible to the effects of inflow reductions.

中文翻译：

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评估淡水抽取对下和平河和佛罗里达州夏洛特港河口物种的空间分布和种群数量的影响的栖息地适宜性建模和绘图

评估了和平河下游及其最大支流贝壳河下游的淡水流入量减少的影响，这些河流流入佛罗里达州西南部的夏洛特港河口。栖息地适应性建模（HSM）以及鱼类和无脊椎动物物种生命阶段的制图用于季节性预测与模拟淡水抽取量有关的空间分布和种群数量的变化。由水动力模型预测的值（2007-2014）得出的季节性盐度网格和温度网格在基线（即不受取水影响的流量）和最小流量（与取水有关的流量）之间相似。在这两种情况之间，深度网格，底部类型网格和季节性溶解氧网格保持不变。将季节性生境适应性模型应用于具有低或中度盐度亲和力的28种鱼类和无脊椎动物物种的生活阶段。在物种生命阶段的季节性模型中，盐度是最重要的因素。生成的季节性HSM图显示，每个物种生命阶段的基线流量和最小流量之间的空间分布相似。在最低流量下，人口数量的大多数季节性估计数都比基准状况的估计数少，这表明与流量减少相关的人口数量受到一定影响。在最低流量下的人口数量减少幅度为0.3％至21.0％，其中28个季节比较中有3个表明损失> 15％，而12个比较表明损失在5％至15％之间。