In this paper, we propose a model to describe the mutual interactions among the lifecycles of three substitute products acting simultaneously in a common market, thus competing for the same customers or cooperating to supply demand. To date, the literature only describes models for two competitors; therefore, the present work represents the first attempt at creating and implementing a model for three actors. The new model is applied to real data in the energy context, and its performance is compared to the performance of current models for two competitors. Regarding the datasets examined, the new model shows a relevant improvement in terms of forecasting performance, that is forecasting accuracy and prediction confidence band width.

在本文中，我们提出了一个模型来描述在共同市场中同时起作用，从而竞争同一客户或合作满足供应需求的三种替代产品的生命周期之间的相互影响。迄今为止，文献仅描述了两个竞争对手的模型。因此，本工作代表了为三个参与者创建和实现模型的首次尝试。将该新模型应用于能源环境中的实际数据，并将其性能与两个竞争对手的当前模型的性能进行比较。关于所检查的数据集，新模型在预测性能方面显示出相关的改进，即预测准确性和预测置信度带宽。