Increasing number of landslides occurred in the cold regions over the past decades due to rising temperature or forest fires associated with climate change. The instability of thawing slopes caused serious damages to transportation infrastructure, residential properties, and losses of human lives. These types of landslides, however, are difficult to analyze by the traditional limit equilibrium methods due to the coupled thermos-hydro-mechanical multiphysics processes involved. This paper describes a novel microstructure-based random finite element model (RFEM) to simulate the stability of permafrost slope subjected to climate change, including the increasing extent of thawing by warm atmosphere and thermal load due to forest fire. The properties of frozen soil are captured with random finite element model incorporating soil-phase coding. The thermomechanical responses of a permafrost slope are simulated to obtain the temperature, displacement, and stress fields. From these, the local factors of safety are obtained, which predict failure slumps along the slope that are consistent with the field-observed failure behaviors in permafrost slopes. The effects of climate change on the permafrost slope stability are analyzed for the years of 1956, 2017, and 2045. The results demonstrated appreciable amount of effects of climate change on the extent of slope failure zones. Forest fire led to melting of frozen soil and also affects the slope stability primarily in the shallow depth.

在过去的几十年中，由于温度升高或与气候变化有关的森林大火，在寒冷地区发生的滑坡数量增加。解冻斜坡的不稳定性对运输基础设施，住宅物业和生命损失造成了严重损害。但是，由于涉及的热水瓶-水力-机械多物理场耦合过程，这些类型的滑坡很难通过传统的极限平衡方法进行分析。本文介绍了一种基于微观结构的新型随机有限元模型（RFEM），用于模拟气候变化引起的多年冻土坡度的稳定性，包括热空气解冻程度的增加和森林大火造成的热负荷。利用结合土壤相位编码的随机有限元模型来捕获冻土的特性。模拟了多年冻土坡度的热力学响应，以获得温度，位移和应力场。从这些结果中，获得了局部安全性因素，这些因素预测了沿斜坡的失稳坍塌，这与多年冻土斜坡中现场观察到的失稳行为是一致的。分析了1956年，2017年和2045年气候变化对多年冻土斜坡稳定性的影响。结果表明，气候变化对斜坡破坏带范围的影响相当大。森林火灾导致冻土融化，并且还主要在浅深度影响边坡稳定性。预测沿斜坡的坍落度与永久冻土斜坡中现场观察到的破坏行为一致。分析了1956年，2017年和2045年气候变化对多年冻土斜坡稳定性的影响。结果表明，气候变化对斜坡破坏带范围的影响相当大。森林火灾导致冻土融化，并且还主要在浅深度影响边坡稳定性。预测沿斜坡的坍落度与永久冻土斜坡中现场观察到的破坏行为一致。分析了1956年，2017年和2045年气候变化对多年冻土斜坡稳定性的影响。结果表明，气候变化对斜坡破坏带范围的影响相当大。森林火灾导致冻土融化，并且还主要在浅深度影响边坡稳定性。