Why do international security experts and policymakers draw analogies between various contexts? Do they use analogies to help them better predict the future consequences of their actions? Or do they employ analogies for other purposes? This article analyzes how policymakers and experts draw on “forward analogies” (i.e., analogies between observed causal relations and expected causal relations) to advance diplomatic negotiations in a particularly hard context: the deliberations of the weapons of mass destruction Free Zone in the Middle East. In situations in which diplomacy is blocked by the unwillingness of parties to start negotiations, this article claims that forward analogies can not only serve a predictive purpose, but also a constitutive purpose: analogies help “constitute” the reality of regional orders (such as the “Middle East”) when their ontological status as objects of deliberation and intervention is problematic. Yet, their successful operation depends on their ability to respect pre-existing cultural scripts and cultural taboos. Furthermore, their constitutive effect remains circumscribed to specific contexts in which forward-looking discussions are clearly distinguished from official negotiations. By highlighting the cultural embeddedness of forward analogies, this article draws upon developments in cultural sociology to advance the burgeoning literature on future-oriented practices in international relations.

中文翻译：

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从欧洲的过去到中东的未来：国际安全中前向类比的构成目的

为什么国际安全专家和政策制定者要在不同的背景下进行类比？他们是否使用类比来帮助他们更好地预测他们行为的未来后果？或者他们是否出于其他目的使用类比？本文分析了决策者和专家如何利用“前向类比”（即观察到的因果关系和预期的因果关系之间的类比）在一个特别困难的背景下推进外交谈判：中东大规模杀伤性武器自由区的审议. 在外交因各方不愿开始谈判而受阻的情况下，本文声称正向类比不仅可以用于预测目的，还可以用于构成目的：当它们作为审议和干预对象的本体论地位存在问题时，类比有助于“构成”区域秩序（例如“中东”）的现实。然而，他们的成功运作取决于他们尊重预先存在的文化脚本和文化禁忌的能力。此外，它们的构成影响仍然局限于特定背景，在这些背景下，前瞻性讨论与官方谈判明显不同。通过强调前向类比的文化嵌入性，本文利用文化社会学的发展来推进有关国际关系中面向未来的实践的新兴文献。他们的成功运作取决于他们尊重预先存在的文化文字和文化禁忌的能力。此外，它们的构成影响仍然局限于特定背景，在这些背景下，前瞻性讨论与官方谈判明显不同。通过强调前向类比的文化嵌入性，本文利用文化社会学的发展来推进有关国际关系中面向未来的实践的新兴文献。他们的成功运作取决于他们尊重预先存在的文化文字和文化禁忌的能力。此外，它们的构成影响仍然局限于特定背景，在这些背景下，前瞻性讨论与官方谈判明显不同。通过强调前向类比的文化嵌入性，本文利用文化社会学的发展来推进有关国际关系中面向未来的实践的新兴文献。