Objectives

This study examined the effect of match location, score-line, team quality and match outcome on the expression of team playing styles in the National Rugby League (NRL) across the 2015–2019 seasons.

Methods

Thirty-eight performance indicators (e.g. offloads, runs) from all NRL games (n = 2010) were collected. Match-related factors examined were location (home/away/neutral), match type (absolute score differential), team quality (end of season ladder position) and outcome (win/draw/loss). Factor analysis using principal component analysis (PCA) were run to identify team playing styles, which were inferred from the clustered dimensions (Factors) of team performance indicators. Discriminant analysis was then used to determine the effect of the match factors on team playing styles.

Results

PCA revealed nine Factors accounting for ∼54% of team performance variance. Discriminant analysis did not meaningfully resolve team playing styles for match type, team quality or location (∼34%, ∼46% and ∼58% classification accuracy, respectively). One discriminant function correctly classified ∼81% of matches based on outcome, including four team playing styles defined as ‘attacking play’, ‘linebreaks’, ‘handling errors’ and ‘conceded linebreaks’.

Conclusions

Team playing styles characterised by ‘attacking play’ and ‘linebreaks’, coupled with relative defensive efficiency showed the greatest association with winning regardless of team quality, match location or match type. Using similar sport analytical techniques, additional insight into the importance of various team playing styles over the time-course of a match may allow teams to further extrapolate the likelihood of success in real-time.

中文翻译：

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探索各种比赛因素对国家橄榄球联盟球队比赛风格的影响

目标

这项研究考察了2015-2019赛季全国橄榄球联盟（NRL）中比赛位置，得分线，球队质量和比赛结果对球队比赛风格表达的影响。

方法

收集了所有NRL游戏（n = 2010）的38个性能指标（例如，卸载，运行）。检查的与比赛相关的因素是位置（主场/客场/中立），比赛类型（绝对得分差），团队素质（赛季末梯位）和结果（获胜/平局/输球）。运行使用主成分分析（PCA）进行的因素分析来确定团队的工作方式，这是根据团队绩效指标的聚类维度（因素）推论得出的。然后使用判别分析来确定匹配因素对团队比赛风格的影响。

结果

PCA揭示了九个因素，占团队绩效差异的约54％。判别分析并不能有效地解决团队比赛类型，比赛质量或位置的比赛风格（分别为〜34％，〜46％和〜58％分类准确度）。一个判别函数可以根据结果正确地将约81％的比赛归类，包括定义为“进攻比赛”，“换行符”，“处理错误”和“让步换行符”的四种团队比赛风格。

结论

无论团队素质，比赛位置或比赛类型如何，以“进攻打法”和“换行符”为特征的球队打法，加上相对的防守效率，都显示出与获胜的最大关联。使用类似的运动分析技术，可以在比赛的整个时间段上深入了解各种球队比赛风格的重要性，从而可以进一步推断出球队实时获得成功的可能性。