In a port-hinterland service network (PHSN), the occurrence of delays or disruption risks in the ports could impose serious impacts on carriers, nodes in hinterlands, or even the entire port-hinterland service network. To study how such risks are generated, propagated, and effectively controlled in the port-hinterland service network, this paper builds a model for the chained propagation of network risks that is consistent with the characteristics of the port-hinterland service network after analysing the risk factors and the risk-generating path by using the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) framework. On the premise of model stability analysis, the paper analyses the elasticity of carriers and ports to the infected proportion of nodes in the hinterlands, infection rate, and recovery rate in order to obtain the optimal control strategy and control coefficient, and the paper finally validates the model through a simulation analysis under a real case. The research shows that external factors causing delay or disruption risk are more important than internal factors, while the occurrence probability of external factors is lower than that of internal factors. There are four equilibrium points in this system. When the equilibrium conditions are met, the infected proportion of carriers and ports gradually approaches zero or narrows to a fixed ratio, and there is only one no-epidemic point. In the equilibrium conditions, when the infected proportion of inland ports is greater than a certain threshold, the infected proportion of carriers and ports decreases with an increase in the infected proportion of inland ports. Moreover, it is determined that increasing the recovery rate is the most effective and direct control measure. The results of this study provide new insights for the risk control of port-hinterland service network managers and participants.

中文翻译：

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港口-腹地服务网络中延迟或中断风险的链式传播稳定性分析和控制策略

在港口腹地服务网络（PHSN）中，港口中发生延迟或中断的风险可能会对承运人，腹地的节点甚至整个港口腹地服务网络造成严重影响。为了研究此类风险在港口-腹地服务网络中如何产生，传播和有效控制，本文在分析了风险之后，为网络风险的链式传播建立了模型，该模型与港口-内陆服务网络的特征相一致模糊层次分析法（FAHP）框架确定因素和风险产生路径。在模型稳定性分析的前提下，分析了腹地携带者和港口对腹地淋巴结感染率，感染率，为了获得最优的控制策略和控制系数，最后通过仿真分析对模型进行了验证。研究表明，引起延迟或破坏风险的外部因素比内部因素更为重要，而外部因素的发生概率则比内部因素要低。这个系统有四个平衡点。当满足平衡条件时，携带者和端口的感染比例逐渐接近零或缩小到固定比例，并且只有一个非流行点。在平衡条件下，当内陆港口感染率大于一定阈值时，内陆港口感染率随内陆港口感染率的增加而降低。此外，已确定提高回收率是最有效和直接的控制措施。这项研究的结果为港口腹地服务网络管理者和参与者的风险控制提供了新的见识。