The paper uses the computable general equilibrium model CORTAX to analyse the extent of base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) in the EU, Japan and the US. Our approach estimates the direct fiscal losses of BEPS and accounts for the second round effects, in particular on the cost of capital and corporate investment. Our central estimates show that the net corporate tax revenue losses in the EU are €36.0 billion per year (7.7% of CIT revenues), €24.0 billion in Japan and €100.8 billion in the US (in both cases representing 10.7% of corporate tax revenues). Our estimates are comparable in size to the global tax revenue losses found using newly reported statistics on foreign affiliates. Our macroeconomic results suggest that eliminating profit shifting would slightly reduce investment and GDP and rise corporate tax revenues, which would positively affect welfare.

本文使用可计算的一般均衡模型CORTAX分析了欧盟、日本和美国的税基侵蚀和利润转移（BEPS）的程度。我们的方法估计了 BEPS 的直接财政损失，并考虑了第二轮影响，特别是对资本成本和企业投资的影响。我们的核心估计显示，欧盟每年的企业税收净损失为 360 亿欧元（占企业所得税收入的 7.7%），日本为 240 亿欧元，美国为 1008 亿欧元（在这两种情况下均占企业税的 10.7%）收入）。我们的估计在规模上与使用新报告的外国子公司统计数据发现的全球税收损失相当。我们的宏观经济结果表明，消除利润转移将略微减少投资和 GDP，并增加公司税收，