The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic was characterized by an initial rapid rise in new cases followed by a peak and a more erratic behaviour that varies between regions. This is not easy to reproduce with traditional SIR models, which predict a more symmetric epidemic. Here, we argue that superspreaders and population heterogeneity would predict such behaviour even in the absence of restrictions on social life. We present an agent-based lattice model of a disease spreading in a heterogeneous population. We predict that an epidemic driven by superspreaders will spread rapidly in cities, but not in the countryside where the sparse population limits the maximal number of secondary infections. This suggests that mitigation strategies should include restrictions on venues where people meet a large number of strangers. Furthermore, mitigating the epidemic in cities and in the countryside may require different levels of restrictions.

中文翻译：

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SARS-CoV-2 在城市与农村的超级传播

COVID-19 大流行的第一波的特点是新病例最初迅速上升，随后达到顶峰，并且在不同地区之间出现了更加不稳定的行为。使用传统的 SIR 模型很难重现这一点，因为传统 SIR 模型预测了更加对称的流行病。在这里，我们认为即使在对社会生活没有限制的情况下，超级传播者和人口异质性也会预测这种行为。我们提出了一种在异质人群中传播的疾病的基于代理的网格模型。我们预测，由超级传播者驱动的流行病将在城市迅速传播，但不会在人口稀少限制了最大二次感染数量的农村地区传播。这表明缓解策略应包括限制人们会见大量陌生人的场所。此外，