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The impact of alternative age-length sampling schemes on the performance of stock assessment methods
Fisheries Research ( IF 2.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-02-24 , DOI: 10.1016/j.fishres.2021.105904
Andre E. Punt , Geoffrey N. Tuck , Jemery Day , Paul Burch , Robin B. Thomson , Pia Bessell-Browne

Stock assessments based on fitting age-structured population dynamics models using the integrated approach usually require data on the length-/age-structure of fishery removals and age-length data to estimate key population parameters such as growth rates, recruitment, natural mortality rates and selectivity. The errors in the estimates of these population parameters directly impact the ability to estimate biomass and hence recommended catch limits based on harvest control rules. The performance of a stock assessment method therefore depends in part on the quality of these “composition” data. Simulation is used to evaluate the effect of a range of effective sample sizes for the length-composition and conditional age-at-length data on the errors in estimating spawning biomass, depletion, recruitment, selected population model parameters, and key model outputs, including catch limit recommendations. Multiple operating models, including those that result in the estimation method being mis-specified, are considered, and the simulations account for the effects of life history, catch history and current stock status. As expected, the errors in estimates of management-related quantities are less for greater effective sample sizes, but effective sample size is seldom the major determinant of the magnitude of estimation errors. The effect of sample size on relative errors is neither linear nor exponential, and spatially-unbalanced sampling is more detrimental than infrequent collection of composition data but with larger sample sizes. The quantitative results are likely case-specific, as they depend on several aspects of the operating model; the framework of this paper can be applied to specific fisheries, in combination with an algorithm that links effective to actual sample sizes.



中文翻译:

替代年龄长度抽样方案对股票评估方法性能的影响

根据采用综合方法拟合年龄结构的人口动态模型进行种群评估,通常需要渔业捕捞长度/年龄结构的数据和年龄长度的数据,以估算关键的种群参数,例如增长率,征聘,自然死亡率和选择性。这些种群参数的估计误差直接影响估计生物量的能力,因此会影响基于收获控制规则的建议捕捞限额。因此,库存评估方法的性能部分取决于这些“成分”数据的质量。模拟用于评估长度组成和条件年龄长度数据的有效样本大小范围对估算产卵生物量,耗竭,募集,选定种群模型参数的误差的影响,和关键模型输出,包括捕捞限量建议。考虑了多种操作模型,包括那些导致估计方法指定错误的模型,这些模拟考虑了寿命历史,捕获历史和当前种群状态的影响。不出所料,对于较大的有效样本量,与管理相关的数量的估计中的误差较小,但是有效样本量很少是估计误差量的主要决定因素。样本量对相对误差的影响既不是线性的也不是指数的,并且空间不平衡的样本比不经常收集组成数据但样本量更大的有害。定量结果可能因具体情况而异,因为它们取决于运营模型的多个方面。

更新日期:2021-02-24
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