For empirical research on the effects of institutions, an important question is whether a given institutional type will generate different outcomes depending on the circumstances that give rise to that institution. In this paper, we examine a unique historical episode in which a specific type of institution—rule by a tyrant—arose in similar states yet differed in terms of whether the impetus came from local support or external influences. Over the course of the sixth century BCE, a substantial subset of Greek poleis (city–states) experienced a period of tyranny. In some cases, the tyrant came to power with the support of local elites, yet in other cases, the tyrant was imposed by a conquering power, Persia. Although it is likely that the tyrants’ proponents—whether local elites or Persian rulers—sought to increase stability and maintain policies necessary for wealth creation, the long run effects of tyranny differed: In poleis where the rise of a tyrant would have depended on local support, a record of tyranny predicts a greater propensity for subsequent development of democracy. By contrast, in poleis where the rise of a tyrant would have depended on Persian support, a record of tyranny has a weak (and perhaps negative) association with subsequent development of democracy. These findings illustrate both the long-run importance of institutional paths and the difficulty in transplanting institutions.

中文翻译：

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路径依赖和从暴政到民主的转变：来自古希腊的证据

对于制度影响的实证研究，一个重要的问题是一个给定的制度类型是否会根据产生该制度的环境产生不同的结果。在本文中，我们考察了一个独特的历史事件，其中一种特定类型的制度——暴君统治——出现在相似的国家，但在推动力是来自当地支持还是外部影响方面有所不同。在公元前 6 世纪的整个过程中，希腊城邦（城邦）的一个重要子集经历了一段暴政时期。在某些情况下，暴君在当地精英的支持下上台，但在其他情况下，暴君是由征服大国波斯强加的。尽管暴君的支持者——无论是当地精英还是波斯统治者——很可能寻求增加稳定性并维持创造财富所需的政策，但暴政的长期影响不同：在极地，暴君的崛起将取决于当地支持，暴政的记录预示着随后民主发展的更大倾向。相比之下，在暴君的崛起将取决于波斯支持的极地，暴政的记录与随后的民主发展具有微弱的（也许是负面的）联系。这些发现既说明了制度路径的长期重要性，也说明了移植制度的困难。暴政的记录预示着后来民主发展的更大倾向。相比之下，在暴君的崛起将取决于波斯支持的极地，暴政的记录与随后的民主发展具有微弱的（也许是负面的）联系。这些发现既说明了制度路径的长期重要性，也说明了移植制度的困难。暴政的记录预示着后来民主发展的更大倾向。相比之下，在暴君的崛起将取决于波斯支持的极地，暴政的记录与随后的民主发展具有微弱的（也许是负面的）联系。这些发现既说明了制度路径的长期重要性，也说明了移植制度的困难。