What’s the point of time travel? Not to change the past; nomatter how carefully a time traveler plans, all of her attempts to change the past end in failure. Paul Horwich has argued that the implausibility of such failures gives us reason to doubt that there will be frequent time travel to the local past. I defend a modified version of Horwich’s argument and show how we might gain evidence about the chance of there being frequent time travel in the future without having any information that explains why that chance value obtains.

中文翻译：

---

如何在不知道原因的情况下知道时间旅行是不可能的

时间旅行的意义何在？不改变过去；无论时间旅行者计划得多么仔细，她改变过去的所有尝试都以失败告终。保罗·霍里奇认为，这种失败的不可信性让我们有理由怀疑是否会有频繁的时间旅行回到当地的过去。我为 Horwich 论点的修改版本辩护，并展示了我们如何在没有任何信息来解释为什么获得该机会值的情况下获得关于未来频繁时间旅行的可能性的证据。