The skepticism towards childhood vaccines and genetically modified (GM) food has grown against scientific evidence of their safety. Distrust in scientific research has important societal consequences, from the spread of diseases to hunger in poorer regions. However, these scientific beliefs are hard to change because they are entrenched within many related moral beliefs and perceived beliefs of one's social network. To understand when belief change is possible, we propose a cognitive network model which integrates both moral and social beliefs and provides testable empirical predictions. Using a probabilistic nationally representative longitudinal study, we find that individuals who changed their beliefs, either towards more positive or negative beliefs about childhood vaccines or GM food, had a reduction in the estimated dissonance of their cognitive belief network. These results are in line with model predictions, shed light on the mechanisms leading to belief change, and have implications for science communication.

中文翻译：

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改变关于科学问题的信念：道德和社会信念网络的作用

对儿童疫苗和转基因食品的怀疑已经与它们的安全性的科学证据背道而驰。从疾病的蔓延到贫困地区的饥饿，对科学研究的不信任产生了重要的社会后果。但是，这些科学信念很难改变，因为它们根深蒂固于许多相关的道德信念和人们社交网络的感知信念之内。为了了解何时可能发生信念改变，我们提出了一种认知网络模型，该模型整合了道德和社会信念，并提供了可检验的经验预测。通过一项在全国范围内进行的概率性纵向研究，我们发现人们改变了自己的信念，对儿童疫苗或转基因食品的看法更加积极或消极，减少了他们的认知信念网络的估计失调。这些结果与模型预测相符，阐明了导致信念改变的机制，并且对科学传播具有启示意义。