Long-term outage of drinking water supply after earthquakes has large adverse impacts on the lives of residents and cities’ water supply systems. Priority assessment is required to determine the effective order of preparing the measures against these hazards. Previous studies have insufficiently focused on the effects of seismic resistance of core pipelines, thereby affecting all the other branched pipelines that supply the water to each residential area. In our research, we aimed to propose the appropriate order of core pipelines derived from the center of the water treatment plants in Osaka, Japan against the Nankai Trough earthquake. Solutions that cause less damage have been needed because natural disaster prediction has had a lot of uncertainty. We proposed indices that can evaluate an appropriate renewal plan that considers the damage of core pipelines of water and the renewal cost for core pipeline networks based on the scenario analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation. The amount of water distribution of core pipelines in each area is the top priority when renewing them in terms of cost-effectiveness and expected rate of water outage under the disaster.

中文翻译：

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输水管网抗震风险优先权评估

地震后长期供水中断对居民和城市供水系统的生活产生了很大的不利影响。需要进行优先评估，以确定针对这些危害采取措施的有效顺序。先前的研究没有充分关注核心管道的抗震性，从而影响了向每个居民区供水的所有其他分支管道。在我们的研究中，我们旨在提出从日本大阪的水处理厂中心抵御南开海槽地震的核心管道的适当顺序。由于自然灾害的预测存在很大的不确定性，因此需要能够减少破坏的解决方案。我们基于方案分析和蒙特卡洛模拟，提出了可以评估适当更新计划的指标，该计划考虑了核心水管的损坏和核心管网的更新成本。就成本效益和灾难下的预期停水率而言，更新每个区域的核心管道的水量是重中之重。