Abstract

In the 2020 general election, the National League for Democracy (NLD) won 920 of the total 1,117 seats, which was upped by 61 seats from its win in the 2015 election. The main opposition party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), won 71 seats, down 46 from the 2015 election when it won 117 seats. The election result gave a strong mandate to the NLD for another five years. On the other hand, the USDP accused the NLD of engaging in electoral fraud including the buying of votes, and called for fresh elections in coordination with the military. Following a complaint from its proxy party, the USDP, the military initially said it would conduct an investigation in 218 townships where the military personnel and their family members cast their votes, which it expanded to 314 townships in all states and regions across the country; this finally led to the declaration of a state of emergency rule (the military coup) on 1 February 2021. Ethnic parties also alleged that the NLD government made certain pre-poll decisions that disadvantaged the ethnic minorities. This paper analyzes the electoral process and its outcome in an attempt to understand whether the election led to the deepening of democracy or the widening of division in the country's democratization process.

摘要

在2020年大选中，全国民主联盟（NLD）赢得了1,117个议席中的920个，比2015年大选获胜增加了61个席位。主要反对党联盟团结与发展党（USDP）赢得71个席位，较2015年大选时的117个席位减少了46个席位。选举结果又赋予了民盟以强烈的授权，为期五年。另一方面，USDP指责NLD参与选举舞弊，包括购买选票，并呼吁与军方协调进行新的选举。在其代表党美国国防部的投诉后，军方最初表示将在218个乡镇进行调查，由军事人员及其家属投票，并将其扩大到全国所有州和地区的314个乡镇；这最终导致在2021年2月1日宣布进入紧急状态（军事政变）。种族党派还声称，民盟政府做出了一些民意测验前的决定，使少数民族处于不利地位。本文分析了选举过程及其结果，以试图了解选举是导致该国民主化进程中民主的加深还是分歧的扩大。