Abstract

Heat waves are the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States while also increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration. Population growth is also occurring in places most exposed to extreme heat. Current US National Weather Service (NWS) guidelines to issue heat alerts vary geographically and may not facilitate optimal heat risk communication. This study focuses on professionals’ decision making and communication in the context of extreme heat risk in Utah, a state with historically low but increasing heat risk due to climate change, a growing population, and rising outdoor recreation visitation. We analyze the mental models of decision-makers responsible for forecasting, communicating, and managing heat risk in Utah using interviews with 32 weather forecasters, media broadcasters, and public officials including park managers. Results demonstrate that institutional norms have influenced how forecasters characterize extreme heat in the western region of the US. NWS heat alerts and tools are new and unfamiliar to many decision-makers, especially in areas of the state where previous criteria did not warrant alerts. Only 44% of participants from these areas were familiar with NWS heat alerts compared to 100% of participants from areas with a history of heat events. While experience with NWS heat alerts and tools varied widely among participants, 100% were familiar with heat protective behaviors. 94% stated they had personally experienced extreme heat and 66% stated that this experience influenced their decisions. Personal experience may be an effective means to communicate heat risk and promote adaptive practices. These insights may be generalizable to other settings where risk is changing and communication strategies are underdeveloped.

摘要

热浪是美国最致命的与天气相关的灾害，同时其频率、强度和持续时间也在增加。最易受极端高温影响的地方也出现了人口增长。目前美国国家气象局 (NWS) 发布高温警报的指南因地域而异，可能无法促进最佳的高温风险沟通。本研究重点关注犹他州极端高温风险背景下专业人士的决策和沟通，该州的高温风险历来较低，但由于气候变化、人口增长和户外休闲访问量增加而不断增加。我们通过对 32 位天气预报员、媒体广播员和包括公园管理者在内的公职人员的采访，分析了负责预测、沟通和管理犹他州高温风险的决策者的心理模型。结果表明，制度规范影响了预报员如何描述美国西部地区的极端高温。NWS 高温警报和工具对于许多决策者来说是新的和陌生的，尤其是在该州以前的标准不值得警报的地区。来自这些地区的参与者中只有 44% 熟悉 NWS 高温警报，而来自有高温事件历史的地区的参与者则为 100%。虽然参与者对 NWS 高温警报和工具的经验差异很大，但 100% 的人都熟悉防热行为。94% 的人表示他们亲身经历过极端高温，66% 的人表示这种经历影响了他们的决定。个人经验可能是传达热风险和促进适应性实践的有效手段。