ABSTRACT

Due to the pro-independence demands of part of its electorate, the political fit of Catalonia within Spain has given rise to notable political tensions over the last few years. This conflict has progressively affected several dimensions of Catalan society, including, potentially, the economy. The illegal referendum on independence, held in October 2017, marked the climax of political and social tensions, leading to a Constitutional crisis and further stoking the conflict as opposed to offering any hope of an early resolution. We analyze a complete set of margins potentially affected by the referendum, including real (aggregate demand and supply) and financial responses. Using a synthetic control method, we find strong evidence of the outflow of short-term bank deposits after the referendum; while, on the real side, we find evidence of responses in aggregate supply (number of capital increases and number of new firms registered).

摘要

由于部分选民支持独立的要求，加泰罗尼亚在西班牙境内的政治契合在过去几年中引起了明显的政治紧张局势。这场冲突逐渐影响了加泰罗尼亚社会的几个方面，包括潜在的经济。2017 年 10 月举行的非法独立公投标志着政治和社会紧张局势的高潮，导致宪法危机并进一步加剧了冲突，而不是提供任何早日解决的希望。我们分析了一整套可能受公投影响的利润率，包括实际（总需求和供应）和财务响应。使用综合控制方法，我们发现公投后短期银行存款流出的有力证据；同时，在真实的一面，