Since the introduction of the nonlinear ARDL approach and asymmetric cointegration and error-correction modeling, old relations are receiving renewed attention, and the link between the trade balance and the exchange rate is no exception. We add to this new literature by using industry-level data from 59 2-digit industries that trade between the U.S. and Germany. We find that when the old approach of the linear model was used, the real dollar-euro rate had short-run effects in 17 industries that lasted into the long run in 26 industries. However, when the nonlinear model was estimated, we found short-run asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes in 49 industries, which lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 28 industries. The J-curve effect was supported in a total of 18 industries.

自从引入非线性ARDL方法和非对称协整和纠错模型后，旧的关系重新受到关注，贸易平衡与汇率之间的联系也不例外。我们使用来自美国和德国之间贸易的 59 个 2 位数行业的行业级数据添加到这一新文献中。我们发现，当使用线性模型的旧方法时，实际美元兑欧元汇率对 17 个行业产生短期影响，并持续到 26 个行业的长期影响。然而，在估计非线性模型时，我们发现49个行业的汇率变化的短期不对称效应持续到28个行业的长期不对称效应。J曲线效应在总共18个行业得到支持。