One of the famous puzzles in macroeconomics, the Lucas (Am Econ Rev 80:92–96, 1990) paradox on “why doesn’t capital flow from rich to poor countries”, continues to exist and shapes capital flows in the modern world. This paper provides cross-country evidence on the role of politico-institutional and financial determinants in gross capital flows dynamics over the period 2000–2016. Using panel regressions incorporating country fixed effects, the study argues that institutional quality rather than the effect of diminishing returns of capital is a key explanation for the “Lucas Paradox”. It corroborates previous empirical evidence that government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and political stability remain the most important institutional indicators in determining gross capital flows dynamics, highlighting the symmetric effect. In contrast, voice and accountability, and corruption are not significant determinants of gross capital outflows dynamics. The main contribution of the paper comes in identifying the link between the multidimensional nature of financial development and gross capital flows. The empirical results highlight the significance of the differences in gross capital inflows/outflows depending on the country’s level of financial development. The study shows the significance and predominance of financial institutions versus financial markets in the dissemination of gross capital flows.

宏观经济学中著名的难题之一，卢卡斯（Am Econ Rev 80：92–96，1990）关于“为什么资本不从富国流向穷国”的悖论继续存在并影响着现代世界的资本流。本文提供了关于政治制度和金融决定因素在2000-2016年期间总资本流动动态中的作用的跨国证据。该研究使用包含国家固定效应的面板回归，认为制度质量而不是资本收益递减的效应是“卢卡斯悖论”的关键解释。它证实了以前的经验证据，即政府效力，监管质量，法治和政治稳定仍然是决定总资本流动动态的最重要制度指标，突出了对称效应。相比之下，发言权和问责制以及腐败并不是决定资本总流出动态的重要因素。本文的主要贡献在于确定了金融发展的多维性质与总资本流动之间的联系。实证结果强调了取决于国家金融发展水平的总资本流入/流出差异的重要性。该研究表明，金融机构相对于金融市场在散布资本流动中的重要性和优势。实证结果突出了取决于国家金融发展水平的总资本流入/流出差异的重要性。该研究表明，金融机构相对于金融市场在散布资本流动中的重要性和优势。实证结果强调了取决于国家金融发展水平的总资本流入/流出差异的重要性。该研究表明，金融机构相对于金融市场在散布资本流动中的重要性和优势。