Overtourism is an increasingly relevant problem for tourist destinations, and some cities are starting to take extreme measures to counter it. In this paper, we introduce a simple mathematical model that analyzes the dynamics of the populations of residents and tourists when there is a competition for the access to local services and resources, since the needs of the two populations are partly mutually incompatible. We study under what conditions a stable equilibrium where residents and tourists coexist is reached, and what are the conditions for tourists to take over the city and to expel residents, among others. Even small changes in key parameters may bring about very different outcomes. Policymakers should be aware that a sound knowledge of the structural properties of the dynamics is important when taking measures, whose effect could otherwise be different than expected and even counterproductive.

过度旅游是旅游目的地日益相关的问题，一些城市开始采取极端措施来应对它。在本文中，我们介绍了一个简单的数学模型，该模型分析了在争夺当地服务和资源时居民和游客的人口动态，因为这两个人口的需求在一定程度上是相互不兼容的。我们研究在什么条件下达到居民和游客共存的稳定平衡，游客接管城市和驱逐居民的条件是什么等。即使是关键参数的微小变化也可能带来截然不同的结果。政策制定者应该意识到，在采取措施时，充分了解动态的结构特性很重要，