Perceptions of risk and uncertainty are pervasive in all international interactions. How states perceive risk and uncertainty and how they respond to these conditions impacts their policies and diplomatic behaviors. Despite a robust literature encompassing of risk and uncertainty within conventional state to state interactions including conflict, state interactions in cyberspace have received less attention. How states perceive and interpret risk and uncertainty in cyberspace varies widely by state. Very often, these perceptions are mutually incompatible and lead to a sub-optimal status quo that fosters increased risk and uncertainty. While the prospects of uncontrolled escalation or worries about a “Cyber Pearl Harbor” might be hyperbole, the reality remains that for decision-makers within states assessing the conditions of and the actions undertaken in cyberspace at present foster instability and encourages risk-seeking behaviors. This work analyzes the formulation of state perceptions of risk and uncertainty and seeks to establish a heuristic within which risk and uncertainty can be analyzed.

中文翻译：

---

可以在网络空间分析风险和不确定性

在所有国际互动中，对风险和不确定性的看法普遍存在。各国如何看待风险和不确定性以及它们如何应对这些条件会影响其政策和外交行为。尽管有大量文献涵盖了包括冲突在内的传统国家与国家互动中的风险和不确定性，但网络空间中的国家互动受到的关注较少。各国如何看待和解释网络空间中的风险和不确定性因国家而异。很多时候，这些看法是相互不相容的，并导致一种次优的现状，从而增加了风险和不确定性。虽然失控升级的前景或对“网络珍珠港”的担忧可能是夸张的，现实仍然是，各国决策者目前正在评估网络空间的条件和在网络空间所采取的行动，这助长了不稳定并鼓励了寻求风险的行为。这项工作分析了对风险和不确定性的状态感知的形成，并试图建立一种启发式方法，可以在其中分析风险和不确定性。