A gridded hydrologic model was developed to assess the impact of projected climate change on future Delaware River Basin (DRB) hydrology. The DRB serves as a water supply resource to over 15 million people. Model evaluation statistics for both water year and monthly runoff projections indicate that the model is able to capture well the hydrologic conditions of the DRB. Basinwide, annual temperature is projected to increase from 2.0 to 5.5 °C by 2080–2099. Correspondingly, potential and actual evapotranspiration, precipitation, rainfall, and runoff are all projected to increase, while snowfall, snow water storage, snowmelt, and subsurface moisture are all projected to decrease. By 2080–2099, basinwide summer subsurface moisture is projected to decrease 7–18% due to increased evapotranspiration, while winter runoff is projected to increase 15–43% due to increased precipitation and snowmelt and a conversion of snowfall to rainfall. Significant spatial variability in future changes to hydrologic parameters exists across the DRB. Changes in the timing and amount of future runoff and other hydrologic conditions need to be considered for future water resource management.

开发了网格水文模型，以评估预计的气候变化对未来特拉华河盆地（DRB）水文学的影响。DRB是超过1500万人的供水资源。水年和月度径流预测的模型评估统计数据表明，该模型能够很好地捕获DRB的水文条件。预计到2080-2099年，整个流域的年温度将从2.0°C升高到5.5°C。相应地，潜在的和实际的蒸散量，降水，降雨和径流都预计会增加，而降雪量，雪水储量，融雪和地下水分都预计会减少。到2080年至2099年，由于蒸散量的增加，整个盆地夏季地下水分预计将减少7-18％，而由于降雨和融雪增加以及降雪转化为降雨，冬季径流预计将增加15-43％。在整个DRB中，未来水文参数的变化存在明显的空间变异性。未来的水资源管理需要考虑未来径流的时间和数量以及其他水文条件的变化。