Seawater intrusion is one of the most serious issues to threaten coastal aquifers. Tourian aquifer, which is selected as the case study, is located in Qeshm Island, Persian Gulf. In this study, first the vulnerability of the region to seawater intrusion is assessed using chloride ion concentration value, then by using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the vulnerability of the region is predicted for 14 wells in 2018. The results show that the Tourian aquifer experiences moderate vulnerability and the area affected by seawater intrusion is wide and is in danger of expanding. It is also found that 0.95 km² of the region is in a state of high vulnerability with Cl concentration being in a dangerous condition. The prediction model shows that ARIMA (2,1,1) is the best model with mean absolute error of 13.3 mg/L and Nash–Sutcliffe value of 0.81. For fitted and predicted data, mean square error is evaluated as 235.3 and 264.3, respectively. The prediction results show that vulnerability is increasing through the years.

海水入侵是威胁沿海含水层的最严重问题之一。案例研究选择的图里安含水层位于波斯湾的格什姆岛。在这项研究中，首先使用氯离子浓度值评估该区域对海水入侵的脆弱性，然后使用自回归综合移动平均线（ARIMA）模型预测该区域在2018年的14口井的脆弱性。结果表明图里扬含水层脆弱性中等，受海水入侵的区域广泛，有扩大的危险。还发现0.95 km ²该地区的大部分地区处于高脆弱状态，Cl浓度处于危险状态。预测模型表明，ARIMA（2,1,1）是最佳模型，平均绝对误差为13.3 mg / L，Nash-Sutcliffe值为0.81。对于拟合和预测数据，均方误差分别评估为235.3和264.3。预测结果表明，这些年来脆弱性正在增加。