Electric vehicles (EVs) are considered a promising technology and an attractive solution for a low-carbon future. It is therefore necessary to model the market penetration of EVs and determine the role of EV adoption in future urban decarbonization scenarios. This study developed an integrated land use–transport–energy model to examine interactions between location choice, land use, transport patterns, energy profiles, and economy when implementing a stringent EV policy. Two scenarios were structured to investigate the long-term (to 2050) impacts of EV adoption on population distribution, land use patterns, transport demand, energy mix, emission profiles, and social welfare. Scenario simulations showed that ambitious market diffusion of EVs is likely to have significant positive effects on emission reduction in city centers, while economic benefits tend to occur in suburban areas, implying that EV adoption will play an important role in the spatial organization and structure of cities. The spatial heterogeneity of different urban zones requires more attention when evaluating the effectiveness of sustainable urban policies. Because disaggregated spatial interactions can be handled by the new integrated model, the methodology proposed here will be a useful tool for sustainable urban planning.

电动汽车（EV）被认为是低碳未来的一项有前途的技术和有吸引力的解决方案。因此，有必要对电动汽车的市场渗透率进行建模，并确定电动汽车在未来城市脱碳情景中的作用。这项研究开发了一个综合的土地利用-运输-能源模型，以检查实施严格的电动汽车政策时地点选择，土地利用，运输方式，能源状况和经济之间的相互作用。研究了两种情景，以研究电动汽车的采用（到2050年）对人口分布，土地使用模式，运输需求，能源结构，排放状况和社会福利的长期影响。场景模拟显示，电动汽车的雄心勃勃的市场传播可能会对城市中心的减排产生重大的积极影响，尽管经济利益往往发生在郊区，这意味着采用电动汽车将在城市的空间组织和结构中发挥重要作用。在评估可持续城市政策的有效性时，需要更多关注不同城市区域的空间异质性。由于新的集成模型可以处理分类的空间相互作用，因此这里提出的方法将是可持续城市规划的有用工具。