The study on historical and future variation in precipitation and temperature is needed to develop effective adaptation strategies for changing climate. The present study investigated the potential impacts of climate change on precipitation and temperature and the performance of individual downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 dataset over the Ghataprabha sub-basin, India. The simulations were carried out using observed, historical and future climate datasets. With the help of statistical indicators, the study also aims at the selection of reliable GCMs for the multi-model ensembling to reduce the uncertainty in the projected results over the sub-basin. The percentage change in precipitation and temperature relative to the historical period was presented based on the multi-model ensemble average under 4 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), viz. RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios, for the three time slices: the beginning of the century (2010–2039), middle century (2040–2069) and end century (2070–2099). Results revealed that the percentage change in annual mean precipitation over the study area for three time slices beginning century, mid-century and end century may likely to increase by 1.68% to 3.57%, 9.35% to 15.07% and 19.51% to 32.28% and the daily average mean temperature may likely to increase by 4.15% to 4.38%, 5.76% to 9.72% and 6.11% to 16.64%, respectively.

需要研究降水和温度的历史和未来变化，以开发有效的气候变化适应策略。本研究从印度加塔帕布亚流域耦合模型比较项目第5阶段的数据集中，研究了气候变化对降水和温度的潜在影响以及各个尺度缩小的全球环流模型（GCM）的性能。使用观测的，历史的和未来的气候数据集进行了模拟。借助统计指标，该研究还旨在为多模型集合选择可靠的GCM，以减少子盆地上预计结果的不确定性。基于4个代表性浓度路径（RCP）下的多模型总体平均值，提出了相对于历史时期的降水和温度百分比变化，即。针对三个时间段的RCP 2.6、4.5、6.0和8.5场景：世纪初（2010-2039），世纪中期（2040-2069）和世纪末（2070-2099）。结果显示，在本世纪初，本世纪中叶和本世纪末的三个时间段内，研究区域的年平均降水百分比变化可能会增加1.68％至3.57％，9.35％至15.07％和19.51％至32.28％和日均温度可能分别上升4.15％至4.38％，5.76％至9.72％和6.11％至16.64％。这三个时间段分别是：世纪初（2010-2039），世纪中期（2040-2069）和世纪末（2070-2099）。结果显示，在本世纪初，本世纪中叶和本世纪末的三个时间段内，研究区域的年平均降水百分比变化可能会增加1.68％至3.57％，9.35％至15.07％和19.51％至32.28％和日均温度可能分别上升4.15％至4.38％，5.76％至9.72％和6.11％至16.64％。这三个时间段分别是：世纪初（2010-2039），世纪中期（2040-2069）和世纪末（2070-2099）。结果显示，在本世纪初，本世纪中叶和本世纪末的三个时间段内，研究区域的年平均降水百分比变化可能会增加1.68％至3.57％，9.35％至15.07％和19.51％至32.28％和日均温度可能分别上升4.15％至4.38％，5.76％至9.72％和6.11％至16.64％。