Purpose The purpose of this paper is as follows: first, it aims to explain the overall economic implications of the trans-pacific partnership (TPP). Second, it aims to provide an in-depth analysis of the TPP’s quantitative impact on an upper-middle economy such as Mexico, as well as on the USA. Design/methodology/approach The analysis is performed using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Findings The results suggest that in the short run, both Mexico and the USA would slightly benefit from the TPP. Tariff reductions would lead to less bilateral trade between Mexico and the USA and the stronger integration of both countries with the rest of the TPP members. The opposite is true after a decrease in non-tariff barriers (NTBs). Overall, in terms of the impact on Mexico, trade integration with the rest of the TPP members prevails. This suggests that a TPP without the USA could still be beneficial. Originality/value Previous studies on the TPP have mainly focused on its impact for the USA, which is also analysed in the present study. The effects of the TPP are estimated for a broad set of micro and macroeconomic variables, paying particular attention to the reductions of NTBs.

中文翻译：

---

没有跨太平洋伙伴关系？对墨西哥好还是坏？

目的本文的目的如下：首先，它旨在解释跨太平洋伙伴关系（TPP）的总体经济影响。其次，它旨在深入分析TPP对墨西哥等中上经济体以及美国的量化影响。设计/方法/方法使用可计算的一般均衡（CGE）模型进行分析。结果结果表明，从短期来看，墨西哥和美国都将从TPP中受益。关税降低将导致墨西哥与美国之间的双边贸易减少，并使两国与TPP其他成员之间的一体化程度更高。在非关税壁垒（NTB）减少之后，情况正好相反。总体而言，就对墨西哥的影响而言，与TPP其他成员的贸易一体化是占主导地位的。这表明没有美国的TPP仍将是有益的。原创性/价值先前对TPP的研究主要集中在其对美国的影响上，本研究也对此进行了分析。对TPP的影响是针对广泛的微观和宏观经济变量进行估计的，尤其要注意NTB的减少。