In this study, we analyse the impact of oil price uncertainty (as measured by an observable measure of oil price volatility, i.e. realised volatility) on United States state-level real consumption by accounting for oil dependency. We account for both the long- and short-run dynamics of the state-level consumption function using the panel Pooled Mean Group estimator. The analysis makes use of a novel dataset including housing and stock market wealth at the state level covering the quarterly period 1975:Q1 to 2012:Q2, supplemented with an annual dataset up to 2018. We simultaneously estimate the long-run relationship and short-run impact of oil price volatility at the state-level conditional upon their oil dependency. We find that the negative impact of volatility is most severe for the states of Wyoming, Alaska and New Mexico, while the negative impact is least for Illinois, New York and Nebraska. States with lower per capita income and consumption expenditure, notably in the Southeast and Southwest region of the country are exposed to be more vulnerable to the negative impact of adverse developments and uncertainty in the oil market, as they may have less access to a stock of wealth and other means as recourse. Heterogenous responses, therefore, necessitate additional state-level response besides the national response to oil uncertainty.

在这项研究中，我们通过考虑对石油的依赖性，分析了油价不确定性（通过可观察到的油价波动性，即实际波动性来衡量）对美国州级实际消费的影响。我们使用面板化的“均值组”估计器来考虑状态级别消费函数的长期和短期动态。该分析利用了一个新的数据集，其中包括1975年第一季度至2012年第二季度的州级住房和股票市场财富，并补充了截至2018年的年度数据。我们同时估算了长期关系和短期关系。石油价格波动对国家的依赖对石油的依赖程度。我们发现，波动率的负面影响对怀俄明州，阿拉斯加州和新墨西哥州最为严重，而负面影响对伊利诺伊州，纽约和内布拉斯加州的影响最小。人均收入和消费支出较低的国家，特别是在该国东南部和西南部地区，更容易受到不利发展和石油市场不确定性的负面影响，因为它们获得石油储备的机会较少。财富和其他手段作为追索权。因此，除了国家对石油不确定性的反应之外，异质反应还需要其他的州级反应。因为他们获得财富和其他手段的资源可能较少。因此，除了国家对石油不确定性的反应之外，异质反应还需要其他的州级反应。因为他们获得财富和其他手段的资源可能较少。因此，除了国家对石油不确定性的反应之外，异质反应还需要其他的州级反应。