Coastal erosion and wetland loss are affecting Louisiana to such an extent that the loss of land between 1932 and 2016 was close to 5,000 km². To mitigate this decline, coastal protection and restoration projects are being planned and implemented by the State of Louisiana, United States. The Louisiana Coastal Master Plan (CMP) is an adaptive management approach that provides a suite of projects that are predicted to build or maintain land and protect coastal communities. Restoring the coast with this 50-year large-scale restoration and risk reduction plan has the potential to change the biomass and distribution of economically and ecologically important fisheries species in this region. However, not restoring the coast may have negative impacts on these species due to the loss of habitat. This research uses an ecosystem model to evaluate the effects of plan implementation versus a future without action (FWOA) on the biomass and distribution of fisheries species in the estuaries over 50 years of model simulations. By simulating effects using a spatially-explicit ecosystem model, not only can the changes in biomass in response to plan implementation be evaluated, but also the distribution of species in response to the planned restoration and risk reduction projects. Simulations are performed under two relative sea level rise (SLR) scenarios to understand the effects of climate change on project performance and subsequent fisheries species biomass and distribution. Simulation output of eight economically important fisheries species shows that the plan mostly results in increases in species biomass, but that the outcomes are species-specific and basin-specific. The SLR scenario highly affects the amount of wetland habitat maintained after 50 years (with higher levels of wetland loss under increased SLR) and, subsequently, the biomass of species depending on that habitat. Species distribution results can be used to identify expected changes for specific species on a regional basis. By making this type of information available to resource managers, precautionary measures of ecosystem management and adaptation can be implemented.

海岸侵蚀和湿地流失对路易斯安那州的影响程度如此之大，以至于1932年至2016年之间的土地流失接近5,000 km ²。为了减轻这种下降，美国路易斯安那州正在计划和实施沿海保护和恢复项目。路易斯安那州沿海总体规划（CMP）是一种适应性管理方法，可提供一系列预计可建造或维护土地并保护沿海社区的项目。通过这项长达50年的大规模恢复和降低风险的计划来恢复海岸，有可能改变该地区经济和生态上重要的渔业物种的生物量和分布。但是，由于生境的丧失，不恢复海岸可能会对这些物种产生负面影响。这项研究使用生态系统模型来评估计划实施与未来无行动（FWOA）对50年模型模拟中河口渔业生物量和分布的影响。通过使用空间明确的生态系统模型模拟效果，不仅可以评估响应计划实施的生物量变化，还可以响应计划的恢复和降低风险项目评估物种分布。在两个相对海平面上升（SLR）场景下进行了模拟，以了解气候变化对项目绩效以及后续渔业物种生物量和分布的影响。对8个具有经济重要性的渔业物种的模拟输出表明，该计划主要导致物种生物量的增加，但结果是特定物种和特定流域的。SLR情景极大地影响了50年后维持的湿地栖息地数量（随着SLR的增加，湿地流失的程度增加），进而影响了取决于该栖息地的物种生物量。物种分布结果可用于识别区域内特定物种的预期变化。通过向资源管理者提供此类信息，可以实施生态系统管理和适应的预防措施。物种分布结果可用于识别区域内特定物种的预期变化。通过向资源管理者提供此类信息，可以实施生态系统管理和适应的预防措施。物种分布结果可用于识别区域内特定物种的预期变化。通过向资源管理者提供此类信息，可以实施生态系统管理和适应的预防措施。