There is a rich array of ways in which unstable, suboptimal and chaos-prone fluctuations could appear at crisis junctures. The richness of the patterns associated with such fluctuations presents considerable challenges to the theory of crises as well as the policies targeting various tendencies induced by crises. Dealing with complexly interwoven unstable, suboptimal and potentially chaotic tendencies is not an easy task, which may require new combinations of methods analysing the causal connections and feedback relations embedded in the web of relations characterizing the crisis-junctures. In this paper, we develop an illustrative dynamic model that takes into account such causally connected feedback relations so as to construct and simulate stochastic policy options, which can influence and help stabilize unstable, suboptimal and chaotic trajectories of exchange rates at financial crisis junctures. For reasons of convenience and practical relevance, we exemplified such policies using taxes. One of the constructed examples makes use a stochastic taxing policy to influence the coefficient of adjustment, which influences the amount of adjustments and hence fluctuations in the market. We incorporate a software-based optimization setup into the simulation model to find the optimal values of the policy parameter to be used for the purpose of simulating the trajectories of the exchange rates. It turns out that the suggested policies could influence/reduce the fluctuations in the market and hence help stabilize unstable or chaotic exchange rate trajectories. The second example in the paper is concerned with an empirical case relating to a particular financial crisis juncture of Turkey during May–November 2018.

中文翻译：

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在危机关头稳定不稳定-次优和混乱倾向的波动：危机管理的随机可能性

在危机关头，不稳定、次优和容易出现混乱的波动可能会以多种方式出现。与这种波动相关的模式的丰富性对危机理论以及针对危机引发的各种趋势的政策提出了相当大的挑战。处理复杂交织的不稳定、次优和潜在混乱趋势并不是一件容易的事，这可能需要新的方法组合来分析嵌入在表征危机时刻的关系网络中的因果关系和反馈关系。在本文中，我们开发了一个说明性的动态模型，该模型考虑了这种因果联系的反馈关系，以便构建和模拟随机政策选项，这可以影响和帮助稳定不稳定的，金融危机时期汇率的次优和混乱轨迹。出于方便和实际相关性的原因，我们使用税收来举例说明此类政策。构建的示例之一使用随机税收政策来影响调整系数，这会影响调整量，从而影响市场波动。我们将基于软件的优化设置整合到模拟模型中，以找到用于模拟汇率轨迹的政策参数的最佳值。事实证明，建议的政策可以影响/减少市场波动，从而有助于稳定不稳定或混乱的汇率轨迹。