The diversity and abundance of native invertebrates is declining globally, which could have significant consequences for ecosystem functioning. Declines are likely to be at least as severe as those observed for vertebrates, although often are difficult to quantify due to a lack of historic baseline data and limited monitoring effort. The Lepidoptera are well studied in Australia compared with other invertebrates, so we know that some species are imperilled or declining. Despite this, few butterfly taxa are explicitly listed for protection by legislation. Here we aim to identify the butterfly taxa that would most benefit from listing by determining the Australian butterflies at most immediate risk of extinction. We also identify the research and management actions needed to retain them. For 26 taxa identified by experts and various conservation schedules, we used structured expert elicitation to estimate the probability of extinction within 20 years (i.e. by 2040) and to identify key threatening processes, priority research and management needs. Collation and analysis of expert opinion indicated that one taxon, the laced fritillary (Argynnis hyperbius inconstans), is particularly imperilled, and that four taxa (Jalmenus eubulus, Jalmenus aridus, Hypochrysops piceatus and Oreisplanus munionga larana) have a moderate–high (>30%) risk of extinction by 2040. Mapped distributions of the 26 butterflies revealed that most are endemic to a single state or territory, and that many occupy narrow ranges. Inappropriate fire regimes, habitat loss and fragmentation (through agricultural practices), invasive species (mostly through habitat degradation caused by weeds and rabbits) and climate change were the most prevalent threats affecting the taxa considered. Increased resourcing and management intervention will be required to prevent these extinctions. We provide specific recommendations for averting such losses.

中文翻译：

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濒临灭绝的蝴蝶：确定灭绝风险最大的澳大利亚蝴蝶（鳞翅目）

全球无脊椎动物的多样性和丰富度正在下降，这可能对生态系统的功能产生重大影响。下降可能至少与在脊椎动物中观察到的下降一样严重，尽管由于缺乏历史基线数据和有限的监测工作而常常难以量化。与其他无脊椎动物相比，鳞翅目在澳大利亚得到了充分的研究，因此我们知道某些物种濒临灭绝或衰退。尽管如此，很少有蝴蝶类被明确列为受法律保护的物种。在这里，我们旨在通过确定濒临灭绝的澳大利亚蝴蝶来确定最能从上市中受益的蝴蝶类群。我们还确定了保留这些研究和管理所需的行动。对于专家确定的26种分类单元和各种保护计划，我们使用了结构化的专家诱因来估计20年内（即到2040年）灭绝的可能性，并确定关键的威胁过程，优先研究和管理需求。专家意见的整理和分析表明，一个分类单元是带花边的贝母（Argynnis hyperbius inconstans）尤其受灾，这四个类群（Jalmenus eubulus，Jalmenus aridus，Hypochrysops piceatus和Oreisplanus munionga larana）到2040年时有中等至高度（> 30％）的灭绝风险。根据这26只蝴蝶的分布图可知，大多数蝴蝶是一个州或领地的地方病，许多蝴蝶的分布范围很窄。不适当的火灾制度，栖息地丧失和破碎（通过农业实践），入侵物种（主要是由于杂草和兔子造成的栖息地退化）和气候变化是影响所考虑的分类单元的最普遍威胁。为防止这些物种灭绝，将需要增加资源和管理干预。我们提供了避免此类损失的具体建议。