In a growing bioeconomy, traditional forest products markets change and diversify. Fossil-based inputs in the chemical, textile, apparel and downstream industries can be replaced by lignocellulose-based products such as dissolving pulp, cellulose-based chemical derivatives and textile fibres. When looking ahead, these previous niche products are likely to gain in economic importance. So far, little attention has been paid to the characteristics of macroeconomic relations of emerging lignocellulose-based materials on macroeconomic level. Key economic parameters for such materials are not available neither at regional nor at global level. This work aims to contribute to a better understanding of the market behavior of emerging forest products that are not yet covered by forest products market analysis. Therefore, this paper investigates how lignocellulose-based products respond to changes of main economic drivers and compute global market elasticities for dissolving pulp, cellulose-based chemical derivatives and textile fibres. To conduct our evaluation, we first test historical input data for non-constancy in time series due to structural changes using change-point estimator (MOSUM test). We subsequently carry out a global econometric analysis of demand and supply elasticities with income (GDP) and real import and export prices as explanatory variables. By doing so, we deliver key information for the adaptation of forest-product market analysis and modelling to an upcoming bioeconomy. The results show several structural changes especially in price data between 1992 and 2015, thus supporting the use of time series cuts to divide the time line from 1992 to 2015 into three different sub-periods. Elasticities are subsequently estimated for each of the sub-periods. The results from this econometric analysis provide import demand and export supply elasticities of dissolving pulp, cellulose chemical derivatives and cellulose textile fibres. In addition, we present elasticity estimation for the apparent consumption of dissolving pulp. Our findings outline the significant relationship between both export supply and import demand volumes and relative changes in prices and income. Across time periods, elasticities of cellulose-based derivatives and textile fibres do not show a clear trend towards more elastic or inelastic coefficients. However, the price elasticities of dissolving pulp fluctuate strongly from inelastic to highly elastic over time. Elasticity estimates of export supply indicate that it is sensitive to international competitiveness which in turn is governed by international demand. Finally, we statistically show that the estimated price and income elasticities of import demand can be analogously interpreted as the demand elasticity of apparent consumption. This is of great importance for economic equilibrium models, such as GFPM or EFI-GTM, in order to simulate and analyze forest sector developments and scenarios.

随着生物经济的发展，传统林产品市场也在发生变化和多样化。化学，纺织，服装和下游工业中基于化石的投入物可以被木质纤维素基产品所代替，例如溶解浆，纤维素基化学衍生物和纺织纤维。展望未来时，这些先前的细分产品可能会在经济上获得重要地位。迄今为止，在宏观经济层面上，很少有人关注新兴的木质纤维素基材料的宏观经济关系特征。这种材料的关键经济参数在区域和全球一级都无法获得。这项工作旨在帮助人们更好地了解林产品市场分析尚未涵盖的新兴林产品的市场行为。所以，本文研究了木质纤维素基产品如何应对主要经济驱动因素的变化，并计算了溶解纸浆，纤维素基化学衍生物和纺织纤维的全球市场弹性。为了进行评估，我们首先使用变化点估计器（MOSUM测试）来测试由于结构变化而导致时间序列非恒定的历史输入数据。随后，我们以收入（GDP）和实际进出口价格为解释变量，对需求和供应弹性进行了全球计量经济学分析。通过这样做，我们提供了关键信息，以使林产品市场分析和建模适应即将到来的生物经济。结果显示出一些结构性变化，尤其是1992年至2015年之间的价格数据，因此支持使用时间序列削减将1992年至2015年的时间线划分为三个不同的子时期。随后为每个子周期估计弹性。计量经济学分析的结果提供了溶解浆，纤维素化学衍生物和纤维素纺织纤维的进出口需求弹性。另外，我们提出了溶解浆的表观消耗量的弹性估计。我们的发现概述了出口供需量与价格和收入的相对变化之间的重要关系。在整个时间段内，纤维素基衍生物和纺织纤维的弹性并未显示出趋向于具有更大的弹性或非弹性系数的明显趋势。然而，随着时间的推移，溶解纸浆的价格弹性会从无弹性变为高弹性。出口供应的弹性估计表明它对国际竞争力敏感，而国际竞争力又受国际需求支配。最后，我们从统计上表明，进口需求的估计价格和收入弹性可以类似地解释为表观消费的需求弹性。这对于经济均衡模型（例如GFPM或EFI-GTM）非常重要，以便模拟和分析森林部门的发展和情景。我们从统计上表明，进口需求的估计价格和收入弹性可以类似地解释为表观消费的需求弹性。这对于经济均衡模型（例如GFPM或EFI-GTM）非常重要，以便模拟和分析森林部门的发展和情景。我们从统计上表明，进口需求的估计价格和收入弹性可以类似地解释为表观消费的需求弹性。这对于经济均衡模型（例如GFPM或EFI-GTM）非常重要，以便模拟和分析森林部门的发展和情景。