Indiscriminate violence against civilians has long been viewed as a catalyst for new rounds of violence in civil wars. Can humanitarian assistance reduce violence after civilians have been harmed? Crossnational studies are pessimistic, drawing a connection between humanitarian aid and increased civil war violence, lethality, and duration. To date, however, we have few subnational studies of wartime aid and subsequent violence. To examine this relationship, I draw on the Afghan Civilian Assistance Program (ACAP II), a USAID-funded initiative that investigated 1,061 civilian casualty incidents (2011–13). Aid was assigned as if randomly to about half (55.8%) of these incidents, facilitating counterfactual estimation of how assistance affected Taliban attacks against the International Security Assistance Force, Afghan forces, and civilians. Challenging prior studies, I find that ACAP was associated with an average 23 percent reduction in attacks against ISAF, but not Afghan forces or civilians, at the village level for up to two years after the initial incident.

中文翻译：

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内战中的平民伤亡、人道主义援助和叛乱暴力

长期以来，针对平民的不分青红皂白的暴力行为一直被视为内战中新一轮暴力事件的催化剂。人道主义援助能否在平民受到伤害后减少暴力？跨国研究是悲观的，将人道主义援助与增加的内战暴力、杀伤力和持续时间联系起来。然而，迄今为止，我们很少有关于战时援助和随后的暴力的地方性研究。为了检验这种关系，我借鉴了阿富汗平民援助计划 (ACAP II)，这是一项由美国国际开发署资助的计划，调查了 1,061 起平民伤亡事件（2011-13 年）。援助似乎是随机分配到这些事件中的大约一半（55.8%），便于反事实估计援助如何影响塔利班对国际安全援助部队、阿富汗部队和平民的袭击。