The aim of this study was to examine whether match physical output can be predicted from the workload applied in training by professional soccer players. Training and match load records from two professional soccer teams belonging to the Spanish First and Second Division were collected through GPS technology over a season (N = 1678 and N = 2441 records, respectively). The factors playing position, season period, quality of opposition, category and playing formation were considered into the analysis. The level of significance was set at p ≤ .05. The prediction models yielded a conditional R-squared in match of 0.51 in total distance (TD); 0.58 in high-intensity distance (HIRD, from 14 to 24 km · h⁻¹); and 0.60 in sprint distance (SPD, >24 km·h⁻¹). The main finding of this study was that the physical output of players in the match was predicted from the training-load performed during the previous training week. The training-TD negatively affected the match physical output while the training-HIRD showed a positive effect. Moreover, the contextual factors – playing position, season period, division and quality of opposition – affected the players’ physical output in the match. Therefore, these results suggest the appropriateness of programming lower training volume but increasing the intensity of the activity throughout the weekly microcycle, and considering contextual factors within the load programming.

这项研究的目的是检验是否可以根据职业足球运动员训练中的工作量预测匹配的身体输出。在一个季节内通过GPS技术收集了来自西班牙第一和第二分区的两个职业足球队的训练和比赛记录（分别为N  = 1678和N  = 2441记录）。分析中考虑了比赛位置，赛季，对手质量，类别和比赛形式等因素。显着性水平设定在p  ≤0.05。预测模型得出的条件R平方的总距离（TD）为0.51；高强度距离（HIRD）为0.58，从14到24 km·h ^-1）; 和0.60的短跑距离（SPD，> 24 km·h ^-1）。这项研究的主要发现是，根据之前训练周的训练负荷来预测比赛中球员的体能。训练TD对比赛的体能有负面影响，而训练HIRD显示出积极的影响。此外，背景因素-比赛位置，赛季，分区和反对派质量-影响了球员在比赛中的体能。因此，这些结果表明，编程较低训练量但在整个每周微循环中增加活动强度的适当性，并考虑负荷编程中的环境因素。