Coastal communities face heightened risk to coastal flooding and erosion hazards due to sea-level rise, changing storminess patterns, and evolving human development pressures. Incorporating uncertainty associated with both climate change and the range of possible adaptation measures is essential for projecting the evolving exposure to coastal flooding and erosion, as well as associated community vulnerability through time. A spatially explicit agent-based modeling platform, that provides a scenario-based framework for examining interactions between human and natural systems across a landscape, was used in Tillamook County, OR (USA) to explore strategies that may reduce exposure to coastal hazards within the context of climate change. Probabilistic simulations of extreme water levels were used to assess the impacts of variable projections of sea-level rise and storminess both as individual climate drivers and under a range of integrated climate change scenarios through the end of the century. Additionally, policy drivers, modeled both as individual management decisions and as policies integrated within adaptation scenarios, captured variability in possible human response to increased hazards risk. The relative contribution of variability and uncertainty from both climate change and policy decisions was quantified using three stakeholder relevant landscape performance metrics related to flooding, erosion, and recreational beach accessibility. In general, policy decisions introduced greater variability and uncertainty to the impacts of coastal hazards than climate change uncertainty. Quantifying uncertainty across a suite of coproduced performance metrics can help determine the relative impact of management decisions on the adaptive capacity of communities under future climate scenarios.

中文翻译：

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量化与气候变化和适应策略相关的沿海危害暴露的不确定性：美国太平洋西北地区沿海替代期货分析

由于海平面上升，暴风雨模式的变化以及人类发展压力的不断变化，沿海社区面临着沿海洪水和侵蚀危害的更大风险。纳入与气候变化和可能的适应措施范围相关的不确定性，对于预测不断演变的沿海洪灾和侵蚀风险以及随着时间的流逝相关的社区脆弱性至关重要。俄勒冈州提拉穆克县（美国）使用了基于空间显式主体的建模平台，该平台提供了一种基于场景的框架来检查整个景观中人与自然系统之间的交互作用，以探索可以减少内陆沿海灾害风险的策略。气候变化的背景。极端水位的概率模拟被用来评估作为一个单独的气候驱动因素以及整个世纪末一系列综合气候变化情景下海平面上升和暴风雨的可变预测的影响。此外，被建模为个人管理决策和适应情景中集成策略的策略驱动程序，捕获了人类对增加的危害风险的可能响应中的变化性。使用与洪水，侵蚀和休闲海滩可及性相关的三个与利益相关者相关的景观绩效指标，量化了气候变化和政策决策中变异性和不确定性的相对贡献。一般来说，与气候变化不确定性相比，政策决定给沿海灾害的影响带来了更大的可变性和不确定性。量化一系列共同产生的绩效指标中的不确定性可以帮助确定管理决策对未来气候情景下社区适应能力的相对影响。