In recent years, managers have increasingly integrated sustainability into their business models. However, they might overestimate the premium that average consumers are willing to pay for the environment. In this paper, we formulate a game-theoretical model that illustrates the impacts of green optimism which refers to managers’ optimistic bias about consumer environmental awareness. We consider a sustainable supply chain in which one manufacturer invests in green product development and sells the green product through one retailer. Each firm within the supply chain is operated by one manager who is either realistic or optimistic. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we find that managers’ optimistic bias might discourage investment in green product development. We also find that green optimism is always detrimental to the upstream manufacturer, but might be beneficial to the downstream retailer. Surprisingly, under certain conditions, green optimism can be detrimental to all stakeholders, i.e., firms in the supply chain, consumers, and the environment. This study suggests an interesting link between supply chain management and human resource management; that is, within a sustainable supply chain those managers who are optimistic about the future of green business might be an obstacle to the success of green business.

近年来，管理人员越来越多地将可持续性纳入其业务模式。然而，他们可能高估了普通消费者愿意为环境支付的溢价。在本文中，我们制定了一个博弈论模型，说明了绿色乐观主义的影响，绿色乐观主义是指管理者对消费者环境意识的乐观偏见。我们考虑一个可持续的供应链，其中一个制造商投资绿色产品开发并通过一个零售商销售绿色产品。供应链中的每家公司都由一位现实或乐观的经理经营。与传统观点相反，我们发现管理者的乐观偏见可能会阻碍对绿色产品开发的投资。我们还发现，绿色乐观主义总是对上游制造商不利，但可能对下游零售商有利。令人惊讶的是，在某些条件下，绿色乐观主义可能对所有利益相关者有害，即供应链中的公司、消费者和环境。这项研究表明供应链管理和人力资源管理之间存在有趣的联系；也就是说，在可持续供应链中，那些对绿色企业的未来持乐观态度的管理者可能会成为绿色企业成功的障碍。